The divergence in bullish and bearish signals from this non-farm payroll data is very clear: the新增 non-farm payrolls were only 57k, significantly missing the market expectation of 110k. Looking solely at the employment data, the signals of economic weakening are prominent, and the market took advantage of this positive factor to quickly push BTC higher in the short term.

However, the key YoY wage growth rate came in at 3.5%, slightly higher than the previous value, indicating that inflationary pressures have not subsided. This is highly consistent with the previously hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials, who are closely monitoring inflation data. The persistently high wage data mean that the timing of rate cuts will likely be pushed further back. This surge is merely a short-term emotionally driven rebound, lacking the underlying logic for a trend reversal.

The overall downward structure of the larger cycle has not been broken. This rally is more akin to a bull trap and washout — avoid heavily chasing long positions and getting trapped. When the market subsequently reaches key resistance ranges, taking short positions from higher levels will better align with the current macroeconomic fundamentals. Operations must strictly control position risk. #非农