Today's market overview (1)

A rebound that’s happening while ETF outflows continue—what does that mean?
Let’s look at the on-chain data first today. Even though ETFs have continued to see daily outflows of 200–300 million over the past two days, after hitting 58k yesterday, why was it still able to produce a 3,000-point rebound today?
The biggest factor is that the number of coins being transferred to exchanges on-chain from yesterday to today has fallen.. From 20–30 thousand coins in a day down to just 2–3 thousand yesterday.
At the same time, daily realized losses have shrunk—from more than a billion per day the two previous days down to 370 million yesterday. Fewer people are cutting losses.
The reason fewer people are cutting losses is also because this is already at the truly “cheap on-chain” floor price. The most likely marginal sellers who would panic have basically been flushed out.
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But on the demand side, all the signals still haven’t turned: the ETF hasn’t turned positive, and Coinbase hasn’t turned positive either..
On top of that, there are still a bunch of trapped positions above. The average cost for buyers from the 1-week to 1-month range is 6W6, and for the 1–3 month range it’s 7W4.
Every time the price rebounds, it will keep running into trapped positions.
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So to summarize, the rebound from yesterday to today = the price being pushed down to cheap floor levels + sellers running out of steam + a short squeeze rebound.
Buy-side demand hasn’t come back yet.
Whether this rebound can continue depends entirely on whether demand-side factors (for example, the ETF) can turn around. No confirming signals have been seen yet.
So for now, we can only treat it as an oversold rebound. If you want a reversal, you need to see three demand-side return signals: the ETF turning into continuous net inflows + Coinbase turning positive + stablecoin supply expanding again.
So for now, we still continue to look for consolidation in a broad range..
The upper end: 62k is a hurdle, and 66k is an even bigger hurdle.
The lower end is still the 55k-above range that has been mentioned in the previous posts—the whale demand zone + the all-chain cost zone at 53k (the true range for each bear-cycle turn).
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Next time, let’s look at today’s intraday action..