Recently, I've been seeing a lot of people saying "stablecoin supply increase = a bull run is coming," and the same logic is applied to ETF inflows. It sounds reasonable, but when you think about it, something feels off.

An increase in stablecoin supply could be due to internal shuffling within the market, or it could be actual external capital coming in—the data itself doesn't tell you the answer. The same goes for ETFs. Whether institutional allocations are long-term or hedging positions, you simply can't see it. Stacking the two curves together and calling it a "causal relationship" feels more like finding reasons after the fact to reassure yourself.

When funding rates were extreme, the community was in an uproar—whether it was a reversal or continued squeezing, no one really knew for sure. My current approach: take correlations as references, treat positions as assumptions, and admit mistakes when they happen. A side effect of analyzing too many token models is that you instinctively calculate sell pressure when you see "linear release" and ask about unlock conditions when you see "lockup"—can't change it.

That's it for now. After all, the market never lacks stories; what's rare is distinguishing which ones are coincidences.