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#币圈观察 Bitcoin Falls for Two Consecutive Quarters, Halving "Sure-Win Rule" Fails for the First Time
Worst First Half in a Decade: Down 30%, Price Halved, 80% Probability of Rate Hike in December... But On-Chain Data Says: The Bottom May Be Near.
I. How Bad Is It?
In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin delivered a rare report card—closing lower for two consecutive quarters. This has only happened three times in Bitcoin's history: 2014, 2019, and 2022.
The total decline in the first half was about 30%, with the price falling from $87,500 to $58,000. Compared to the all-time high of $126k in October 2025, it has already halved. June was particularly brutal—down 19% in a single month, the worst month since June 2022.
Why Did the Halving "Sure-Win Rule" Fail?
Historically, the years following Bitcoin halvings (2013, 2017, 2021) all saw massive rallies. 2025 did see gains, but 2026 did not continue the trend—the historical pattern has been broken.
II. How Is This Different from 2022?
Many people compare 2026 to 2022, but the essence is completely different.
2022 was an "internal system implosion," while 2026 is an "external liquidity drought." The nature differs, and so will the way the bottom forms.
The Fed Is Still "Twisting the Knife":
Although the June meeting kept rates unchanged, the dot plot showed that nine officials expect at least one rate hike before year-end. New Chair Warsh removed forward guidance, and the policy statement shrank from 300 words to 130 words—interpreted by the market as a hawkish reinforcement.
CME FedWatch shows: The market now prices an 80% probability of a rate hike in December. AI Is Draining Liquidity: A large amount of new dollar liquidity is being absorbed by the AI sector, rather than flowing into crypto assets. Bitcoin is competing with AI for "new money."
III. Who Is Selling? Who Is Buying?
Sellers: ① ETF Record Exodus In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.06 billion—a new all-time monthly record. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $3.3 billion (75%), equivalent to selling about 71,600 BTC in one month.
Sellers: ② Strategy's "Faith Shaken"? Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, announced for the first time in six years that it may sell coins—authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion in BTC. While this represents only 2.4% of its total holdings, the psychological impact is huge: the biggest bull is preparing to sell.
Buyers: Whales Are Quietly Accumulating Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have been steadily accumulating during the downtrend. But the problem is: the rate at which whales buy is far slower than the rate at which ETFs sell.
Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance
About $4.4 billion in excess supply is overwhelming market buy orders.
IV. On-Chain Data Says: The Bottom May Be Near Although the price is still falling, multiple on-chain indicators are flashing early bottom signals: Extreme fear is often a contrarian indicator—when everyone is panicking, the bottom is often not far away.
But there is still a caveat: Since 2011, in every major bear market, Bitcoin eventually broke below the "realized price" to establish the cycle bottom. This signal has not yet appeared in the current cycle. That is to say: many indicators point to a bottom zone, but the ultimate bottom may not have been reached yet.
V. What Should You Do Now?
If you are a short-term trader: Watch $58,000—if it fails to hold, it could quickly test $55,000 or even $50,000; July's historical pattern leans bullish, but this year's macro environment is special, so lower your expectations.
If you are a medium- to long-term holder: On-chain indicators (extreme fear, UTXO 5.9) point to a near-bottom zone; but the "break below realized price" signal has not yet appeared; accumulate in batches, don't go all-in at once.
If you are a bystander: Wait for: ① Easing of rate hike expectations ② Slowing of ETF outflows; or wait for the ultimate bottom signal after "breaking below realized price." $BTC
The Worst First Half in Nearly a Decade: Down 30%, Price Halved, 80% Probability of a December Rate Hike... But On-Chain Data Says: The Bottom May Not Be Far Off.
I. How Bad Is It Really?
In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin delivered a rare report card—closing lower for two consecutive quarters. This has only happened three times in Bitcoin's history: in 2014, 2019, and 2022.
The total decline for the first half was about 30%, with the price falling from $87,500 to $58,000. Compared to the all-time high of $126k in October 2025, it has already been cut in half. June was particularly brutal—a 19% monthly drop, the worst month since June 2022.
Why Has the Halving "Sure-Win Pattern" Failed?
Historically, the years following Bitcoin halvings (2013, 2017, 2021) were all big bull runs. 2025 did rally, but 2026 did not continue the trend—historical patterns have been broken.
II. How Is This Different from 2022?
Many people compare 2026 to 2022, but the nature is fundamentally different.
2022 was a "systemic internal blowup," while 2026 is an "external liquidity drought." The nature is different, and the way the bottom forms will also differ.
The Fed is still "adding insult to injury":
Although the June meeting kept interest rates unchanged, the dot plot showed nine officials expect at least one rate hike before year-end. New Chair Warsh removed forward guidance, and the policy statement was shortened from 300 words to 130—interpreted by the market as a hawkish strengthening.
CME FedWatch shows: The market prices the probability of a December rate hike at 80%. AI is sucking away liquidity: A large amount of new dollar liquidity is being absorbed by the AI sector rather than flowing into crypto assets. Bitcoin is competing with AI for "new money."
III. Who Is Selling? Who Is Buying?
Sellers ①: Record ETF Outflows In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.06 billion—a historical monthly record. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $3.3 billion (75%), equivalent to selling about 71,600 BTC in one month.
Sellers ②: Strategy's "Faith Shaken"? Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, announced for the first time in six years that it could sell coins—authorizing up to $1.25 billion in BTC sales. Although this only represents 2.4% of its total holdings, the psychological impact is huge: the biggest bull is preparing to sell.
Buyers: Whales Are Quietly Accumulating Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have been accumulating during the decline. But the problem is: the rate at which whales buy is far slower than the rate at which ETFs sell.
Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance
An oversupply of about $4.4 billion is overwhelming buy orders in the market.
IV. On-Chain Data Says: The Bottom May Not Be Far Off Although prices are still falling, multiple on-chain indicators are flashing early bottoming signals: Extreme fear is often a contrary indicator—when everyone is panicking, the bottom is often not far off.
But there is still a hidden risk: Since 2011, in every major bear market, Bitcoin has ultimately broken below the "realized price" to establish a cycle bottom. This cycle has not seen that signal yet. In other words: Many indicators point to a bottoming zone, but the ultimate bottom may not have arrived yet.
V. What Should You Do Now?
If you are a short-term trader: Watch $58,000—if it doesn't hold, a rapid decline to $55,000 or even $50,000 is possible; July's historical tendency is bullish, but this year's macro environment is unique—lower your expectations.
If you are a medium-to-long-term holder: On-chain indicators (extreme fear, UTXO 5.9) point to a near-bottom zone; but the "break below realized price" signal has not yet appeared; accumulate in batches, don't go all-in at once.
If you are a bystander: Wait for: ① a softening of rate hike expectations ② a slowdown in ETF outflows; or wait for the ultimate bottom signal after a "break below realized price."$BTC