Tonight at 8:30, it’s Non-farm payroll night—this is the key decision point: long or short? Personally, I still lean short.

Current market mainline: the Fed is hawkish, and rate-hike pricing for this year is being restarted. CME interest rate futures show a 64% probability of a rate hike in September. Fed Chair Walsh has clearly stated that suppressing inflation is the top priority. Strong employment would give the Fed the confidence to “dare to hike,” while a sharp weakening in employment would cool tightening expectations.

Strong employment + rising wages → inflation proves resilient → the dollar and US bond yields move higher → gold and crypto face pressure
Sharp employment weakness + wage cooling → rate-hike expectations fall → the dollar weakens, while gold and crypto rebound.

Today’s session saw choppy movement upward for repair, basically holding above 595. The high is around 615, with a steady slow grind higher. It looks like there may be some premature digestion of expectations. Of course, with unknown data ahead, all forecasts are just guesses. We still base our approach primarily on structure. The fact that the overall market remains weak is beyond doubt—so tonight we still focus on shorting at highs.

In the short term, resistance is at 615–620. If it touches this zone, you can short. The second resistance is 630; if “shorts” break through, then wait and watch. On the downside, watch targets at 595–580. If that breaks, continue to watch 560. If it doesn’t break, it remains a broad-range tug-of-war.