Nonfarm Payrolls Background — Read in Advance

Assassin Morning Report · July 2, 2026

Let’s start with the big picture
The market gave us a little sip of sweet water today. Total market cap climbed back to $2.15 trillion, and BTC stood at $59,700. The gains aren’t huge, but the key is that it held steady at last week’s starting line. Over on the U.S. stock side, things weren’t as pleasant — the Nasdaq had three consecutive red days, with tech stocks diverging sharply: hardware got beaten down while software feasted. That’s a signal worth pondering.

Gold hit a new high again — $4,060. It’s now in a bit of a “vying for favor” situation with BTC. Risk-averse funds are bouncing between the two; whoever tells a stronger story attracts the money.

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Liquidation Map — Where the knife edge is
In plain English: right now, neither longs nor shorts have a clear advantage on the board.

· Below, in the 58,000–59,500 range, a lot of leveraged long positions have piled up. If the daytime Nonfarm Payrolls data comes in ugly, a sharp drop could trigger a chain of cascading liquidations.

· Above, 60,800–61,300 is the Achilles’ heel for shorts. Once BTC breaks through 60,000 on positive news, these short positions will be forcibly covered, turning into rocket fuel that pushes the price even higher.

My take: Before the NFP data, BTC will likely oscillate between 59,000 and 60,500, waiting for the data to decide the direction. If you have open positions, either tighten your stops or wait for the data to make a move.

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Macro Stuff — The Fed Is Playing Tai Chi
Warsh’s speech this time basically said, “Don’t ask me if we’ll hike rates — I don’t know either, let’s see the data.” That sounds useless, but it’s actually bullish — at least he didn’t scare the market. Hassett was even more direct, plainly shouting “Don’t hike.” The White House and the Fed seem to be performing a duet now.

Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls is the real test. If the data is mild (say, 150k–200k new jobs), the market will treat it as a positive catalyst. If it’s too hot (over 250k), then we’ll worry about rate hikes again. If it’s too cold (under 100k), that’s even worse — recession fears will kick in and risk assets will take a knee.

My personal leaning: The data will likely be neutral to slightly weak, giving BTC a short-term bounce window — but don’t expect a moonshot.

Tech Giants’ Computing Power Business — This Is the Real Deal
What Meta did this time is far more important than releasing an earnings report. They plan to sell AI computing power as a cloud service — essentially opening their “arsenal” to the public. The stock surged 9% in a day; the market voted with its money.

Behind this, there are two threads:

1. The era of hardware oversupply is here — Micron’s 10% drop wasn’t accidental. They expanded too aggressively before, and now supply exceeds demand. If Nvidia’s next-quarter guidance softens, the entire semiconductor sector will take another hit.

2. The way AI makes money has changed — from “selling shovels” to “running a casino.” Whoever has the computing power and the models can collect rent. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are about to start a price war, which is good for small and mid-sized startups — computing costs will come down.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Lower computing costs benefit all tracks that require large-scale computation — such as ZK verification, AI agents, and on-chain machine learning. But this logic is long-term; don’t get carried away.

Gold & Crude Oil — Geopolitical Tensions Easing
The U.S. and Iran are reportedly making progress on negotiations about tolls for the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is reached, crude supply pressure could ease, and oil prices will likely continue to slide in the short term. But gold can’t fall because global central banks haven’t stopped buying, and the dollar index is hovering around 101, which supports gold prices.

Trading advice: For crude, don’t chase shorts — it’s safer to wait for a bounce and then short. For gold, holding is fine, but chasing highs offers poor risk/reward.

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Finally, BTC
The recent rebound is more about oversold recovery + short covering ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls, not a reversal. ETF flows have been quiet over the past two days, suggesting big institutions are on the sidelines.

Today’s strategy:

· Before the data: You can try a small long position near 59,500, with a stop loss at 58,800, targeting 60,500.

· After the data: If the employment figure is around 150,000, it’s likely to push above 61,000. At that point, watch the volume — if volume is insufficient, take profits.

If the data is a surprise (whether good or bad), the first reaction should be risk-off — exit and watch from the sidelines.

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Assassin Community Reminder: Nonfarm Payrolls night brings high volatility. Don’t bet heavily on a direction. It’s more important to survive long than to profit fast. #btc