July 2

Bitcoin Evening
Non-farm data is the decisive variable tonight:
The market currently prices a high probability of a rate hike in September, with real yields on U.S. Treasuries at elevated levels. Bitcoin, as a non-yielding risk asset, is under pressure from USD liquidity.
Earlier ADP data came in below expectations, and Fed officials' dovish remarks drove Bitcoin's oversold rebound from the 57,700 low. This rally is a recovery after negative factors materialized, not a bullish reversal.
After the non-farm data release, the price movement will directly anchor to employment data: strong employment → increased rate hike expectations → Bitcoin surge followed by a pullback; weak employment → increased rate cut expectations → bullish push in the market.
After surging to 61,300 in the early morning, Bitcoin quickly pulled back. The rebound faced clear resistance, and short-term bullish momentum is insufficient. Price is trading below the upper Bollinger Band, making surges prone to profit-taking.
The four-hour indicator shows a golden cross continuing, with short-term consolidation leaning bullish. However, there is heavy overhead supply, making sustained gains difficult.
Strategy: Before the data, short at 61,300–61,500 with a stop loss at 61,900, targeting 60,000–59,000. After the data, trade with the trend.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk; enter the market cautiously.
#非农数据倒计时 $BTC