Review of the last three matches: all had large scores. The Belgium match was the most suspenseful—overtime winner. The US won a knockout match for the first time in 24 years. All went in the expected direction, no upsets.


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This version looks at probability direction, has been calibrated with the odds, and does not bet on a single score.
🇪🇸 Spain vs 🇦🇹 Austria Model probability: Spain 65% / Draw 20% / Austria 15% Expected goals: 2.03 - 1.06
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