Tonight's non-farm payroll data is about to be released! Jing Yue breaks down the content thoroughly through forward-looking analysis. Friends who like Jing Yue can click follow to stay on track and receive timely information and strategy analysis!!!

The core contradiction of this non-farm payroll is stuck in wage data. The market expects the annual hourly wage rate to rise to 3.5%, higher than the previous value of 3.4%, which directly locks the Fed's easing space.

The Fed is anchored to a 2% inflation target. Sustained wage increases mean consumer inflation is hard to cool down, and rate cut expectations will be continuously postponed. Risk assets will be under long-term pressure.

Non-farm payroll employment expectations are only 110k, significantly lower than the previous value of 172k. The market has already priced in the positive of weak employment, but employment weakness alone is not enough to reverse the trend.

As long as wage data does not decline, even if employment falls short of expectations, the market will only briefly spike. The resilience of the dollar remains, and all rebounds are windows for shorts to distribute.

Initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly, which can only slightly offset the negative employment side, and cannot change the hawkish underlying logic brought by wages.

Two market scenarios have long been clear: if employment and wages both strengthen, coin prices will directly dive deep; if employment weakens while wages remain high, there will be a brief rebound followed by pressure and decline.
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