7.2 Market Analysis — Brief Update

Trend Direction: Bullish Continuation

Technical Analysis:

The June non-farm payroll data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and the U.S. stock market will be closed tomorrow, so volatility may be concentrated tonight.

BTC

It rebounded as expected yesterday, and after a slight breakout above the consolidation resistance zone of 60700-60897, it was suppressed and pulled back. However, there were clearly two upward breakout attempts, which failed, but at least showed an intention to attack.

It broke through 613 in the early session and pulled back without breaking the upward trend line, maintaining an overall bullish outlook. The upper resistance level is at 61730-62466, where the upper rail of this zone aligns with the daily MA30. If combined with a positive non-farm payroll data tonight, it may smoothly reach around 62466.

For many days, the core analysis has focused on BTC because from a liquidity perspective, BTC has greater technical value. However, since the main trading target is ETH, today I will focus more on it.

ETH

The weekly MA5 is around 1661, which provides some resistance and aligns with the daily EMA20, 12H MA30, and 4H MA90, creating a combined suppression zone. This position has some resistance. Unfortunately, yesterday's long order with a take profit at 1651 did not reach, resulting in a stop loss. The buy order placed below at 1595 missed by less than 2 USD... So, will it continue to rise?

To confirm whether it will rise, the core focus remains on price action (PA). From the 4H perspective, it is still in a bullish channel. As mentioned earlier, the moving average resistance above remains densely diverging downward. However, since yesterday's rise was a "bullish breakout candle" as expected, this pattern of a quick rebound followed by consolidation and another fast rebound with a large bullish candle is a structure of accumulating momentum for an upward push. Therefore, before the 4H shows a "bearish engulfing" or a break below the upward trend line, we maintain a bullish outlook.

Due to the oversold conditions in the previous period, the moving averages on the 4H and higher timeframes are pointing downward, so the upward move will inevitably encounter repeated resistance. Here, we must stay rational and strictly monitor price action. When resistance appears at various levels, short-term positions can take timely profits, while trend positions should hold until the first target of around 1767 and the second target of around 1842 before a clear downtrend pattern emerges. Beyond that, it is not a level we need to focus on now. Based on personal trading bias, the first and second targets will be reached within the next week, but this is just bias, and specific adjustments must be made based on the actual market.

Comprehensive Analysis:

In a rebound after an oversold condition, resistance at various levels and candlestick patterns will inevitably appear, tempting us to abandon our rebound positions and take profits. This mindset is not a problem, but if taking profits leads to missing out, the subsequent mindset may cause wrong operations of chasing highs and selling lows. Therefore, it is still recommended to split positions into two parts: large capital in trend positions with low leverage, targeting key trend levels (e.g., the first and second targets of this round). Hold the trend positions firmly until a clear reversal downtrend on the 4H or higher timeframe appears. Short-term positions can trade the upside waves before each resistance level. This approach prevents missing out (trend positions) while capturing more waves (short-term positions).

Overall, the current market has indeed entered a phase of key resistance zones, but the suppression has not caused an oversold breakdown. Therefore, as of this writing, we remain bullish. For ETH, consider going long around 1609-1615 intraday, with a take profit set at 1666-1676. If the non-farm payroll data is clearly positive, you can be more aggressive and set the take profit at around 1712 (short-term position). Trend positions remain bullish toward the first and second target levels.