The World Gold Council's baseline scenario as of mid-2026, according to a single source, is that gold prices could trade around $4,100 per ounce this year; while according to the same source, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once around October, and other major central banks will also continue tightening.

In other words, this central pivot around $4,100 is built on the assumption of "continued rate hikes." At the same time, gold prices first broke through $5,500 in the first half of the year, according to a single source, then fell below $4,000, a pullback of about 7%, and the volatility itself already reflects divergence in expectations for future interest rates and risks.

More tension comes from the fact that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, directly stated that "raising interest rates would be a mistake." On one hand, the market has priced in a rate hike path; on the other hand, the executive branch publicly opposes it. Gold in the second half of the year is likely to become a magnifying glass for the interest rate game.

For market participants, this means: gold is no longer just a simple "safe-haven switch," but a bet on the future path of interest rates. What needs to be watched next is not just gold prices themselves, but whether central bank actions will match expectations, and whether political voices like the White House will change the path.