Since June, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of over $58k, with BlackRock alone accounting for more than $60k.

Institutions are pulling out, but the price has held steady around $58k to $60k, even rebounding to $61,000.

So the question is: ETFs are selling, who is buying? The answer is clear: whales and long-term holders. These two groups are acting as counterparties to institutions, swapping positions.

First, ETFs are indeed selling, but the most intense wave has passed.

In June, ETF outflows totaled $4.06 billion, the worst month since launch. But note that the outflow rate has slowed significantly, from $1.7 billion per week to just $226 million recently, a drop of 87%. BlackRock saw $1.3 billion outflow the previous week, but as of July, there are signs of daily inflows. The peak selling pressure is over.

Second, whales have been quietly accumulating in the $58k–$60k range.

Since June 1, large holders with 10 to 10k BTC have increased their positions by 270k BTC, worth about $20 billion, the largest monthly accumulation across all categories since 2013. On-chain data is clear: in mid-June, an address withdrew 2,341 BTC from OKX; in late June, multiple new addresses collectively withdrew over 3,000 BTC from custodians; within seven days, whale wallets added over 30k BTC. And the timing is spot on—exactly when ETF outflows were heaviest. This is no coincidence; they are buying the dip.

Third, long-term holders have barely moved; they are locked in tightly.

Long-term holders now control approximately 16.1 million BTC, accounting for 79% of the circulating supply, an all-time high. The number of old coins being reactivated is only 218k, the lowest since 2012. At this time last year, 1.18 million coins were being activated. What does this mean? Even as the price dropped to $58,000, the most steadfast holders did not sell.

Fourth, $58,000 is the cost basis floor for smart money.

The average cost basis of long-term holders is around $48,400, but $58,000 is another key defense line. This is the level where whales concentrated accumulation in June, and it's also the zone with the densest buy orders on the order book. Market makers and institutions have placed a large number of buy orders to support this range.

Finally, it's a battle between two groups: short-term selling pressure persists, but medium-term capital is quietly accumulating. Whichever side buckles first determines the direction.

So don't jump to conclusions. Wait for the $58,000 level to play out first, and for the handover to complete. Then the direction will become clear. For now, just watch.