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#加密市场观察 Today's Hot Topic: Dovish Fed Expectations Loom, Bitcoin Likely to Bottom Before October, July is Key Turning PointToday's Hot Topic: Dovish Fed Expectations Loom, Bitcoin Likely to Bottom Before October, July is Key Turning Point
Bitwise Europe Head of Research André Dragosch analyzed that if the semiconductor sector rebounds sharply, prompting the Fed to release dovish signals, July could become the turning point for Bitcoin's bull-bear cycle, with his core view being that Bitcoin is likely to bottom earlier than the market's general expectation of October.
Trump's hundreds of millions in crypto income exposed, significantly accelerating negotiations on ethical clauses in the Clarity Act
Trump's financial disclosure documents show his crypto-related income reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, while Melania's NFT income also surged from $216k to $6 million. This event has greatly accelerated negotiations on ethical clauses in the Clarity Act; bipartisan senators have called for strict cross-party ethical reforms to prohibit presidents and lawmakers from using cryptocurrency for personal gain. Trump argued that his assets are managed by anonymous large institutions and that he is not involved in operations.
On-chain activity weakens across the board, derivatives and DeFi shrink simultaneously, investors collectively hold coins and wait
The crypto market trading heat has significantly cooled. DeFi trading volume dropped 15.34% in 24 hours, derivatives trading volume fell 7.46%, and stablecoin trading volume slightly declined 0.07%. The simultaneous contraction in spot and derivatives volumes reflects strong market wait-and-see sentiment, with funds generally pausing trading to wait for clear market signals.
Powell-style forward guidance exits the stage; investment can only rely on economic data to judge rate hike pace
Fed Chair Warsh, nominated by Trump and just taking office in May, released a major policy signal: the Fed will switch to a completely new policy path, completely abandoning forward guidance. It will not pre-disclose rate hike or cut tendencies, and whether to hike in July will be entirely determined by economic data. He dislikes officials frequently speaking out to disrupt the market, with a communication style different from Powell. He served during the 2008 financial crisis. Going forward, investors can only rely on various macroeconomic data to independently judge the Fed's interest rate direction.
European crypto regulation faces dual changes: MiCA takes effect with simultaneous revisions, stablecoin sector faces increased uncertainty
The EU's crypto regulatory framework MiCA officially took full effect today. The EU simultaneously launched a comprehensive assessment and revision of the framework, prioritizing stablecoin regulatory rules and cross-border regulatory equivalence mechanisms for review. Subsequent provisions may be adjusted, directly impacting global stablecoin compliance layouts in the EU.
Global crypto regulation evolves in parallel; Taiwan fills legislative gaps, EU urgently optimizes MiCA framework
The Taiwan region officially passed its first crypto-specific regulation, the Virtual Asset Service Act, establishing a complete licensed regulatory framework for exchanges, stablecoin issuance, and other businesses. On the same day, the EU's MiCA crypto regulation fully took effect, with the EU simultaneously launching a framework assessment and revision, prioritizing stablecoin rules and cross-border equivalence mechanisms for review. Global crypto regulation is undergoing major updates in parallel.
CryptoQuant CEO makes a major announcement: Bitcoin still has one parabolic rally, institutional large-scale allocation is key
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju published an analysis stating that Bitcoin still has the potential for a parabolic rally. Currently, market capital efficiency has significantly declined. In the early days, $2.7 billion could drive tens of thousands of times in gains; in this cycle, nearly $700 billion only drove 689% gains. The next bull market cannot rely solely on retail ETFs; it requires deep institutional allocation and Bitcoin becoming a mainstream macro asset. The current institutional transformation is still in its early stages. If Bitcoin absorbs over $1 trillion in realized market cap, a new surge can be expected, with gold's current market cap of about $27 trillion serving as a reference.
Bitwise Europe's Head of Research, André Dragosch, analyzed that if the semiconductor sector rebounds sharply and prompts the Fed to release dovish signals, July could become a turning point for Bitcoin's bull/bear cycle. His core view is that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out earlier than the market's general expectation of October.
Trump's hundreds of millions in crypto income exposed, greatly accelerating negotiations on ethical clauses in the Clarity Act
Trump's financial disclosure documents show his crypto-related income reached hundreds of millions of dollars, while Melania's NFT revenue also surged from $216k to $6 million. This incident has significantly sped up negotiations on the ethical clauses of the Clarity Act; bipartisan senators are calling for strict cross-party ethical reforms to prohibit the president and lawmakers from using cryptocurrency for personal gain. Trump, however, argues that his assets are managed by anonymous large institutions and he is not involved in operations.
On-chain activity weakens across the board, derivatives and DeFi shrink simultaneously, investors collectively hold coins and wait
The crypto market's trading activity has cooled significantly, with 24-hour DeFi trading volume down 15.34%, derivatives trading volume down 7.46%, and stablecoin trading volume slightly down 0.07%. Volumes in both spot and derivatives tracks have shrunk simultaneously, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the current market, with funds generally pausing trading to wait for clear market signals.
Powell-style forward guidance exits the stage; investment now relies solely on economic data to judge the pace of rate hikes
Trump-nominated Fed Chair Warsh, who took office in May, has issued a major policy signal: the Fed will shift to a completely new policy path, completely abandoning forward guidance. It will not disclose a preference for rate hikes or cuts in advance, and whether to hike rates in July will be entirely determined by economic data. He dislikes officials frequently speaking out and disrupting the market, with a communication style distinct from Powell's. Warsh previously served during the 2008 financial crisis, and going forward, investors will have to rely on various macroeconomic data to judge the Fed's interest rate direction on their own.
Europe's crypto regulation faces dual changes: MiCA takes effect with simultaneous revisions, leading to increased uncertainty in the stablecoin track
The EU's crypto regulation framework, MiCA, officially came into full effect today, with the EU simultaneously launching an overall assessment and revision of the legislation. Stablecoin regulatory rules and cross-border regulatory equivalence mechanisms have been prioritized for review, and subsequent provisions may see adjustments, directly impacting the compliance layout of global stablecoins within the EU.
Global crypto regulation evolves in sync: Taiwan fills legislative gaps, EU urgently optimizes MiCA framework
The TW region has officially passed its first dedicated crypto regulation, the "Virtual Asset Service Act," establishing a complete licensed regulatory framework to regulate exchanges, stablecoin issuance, and other activities. On the same day, the EU's MiCA crypto regulation fully took effect, with the EU simultaneously launching an assessment and revision of the legislation. Stablecoin rules and cross-border equivalence mechanisms have been prioritized for review, marking a major synchronized update in global crypto regulation.
CryptoQuant CEO makes major statement: Bitcoin still has a parabolic rally ahead, institutional large-scale allocation is key
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted an analysis stating that Bitcoin is still expected to experience a parabolic surge. Today's market capital efficiency has dropped significantly; in the early years, $2.7 billion could drive tens of thousands of percentage points in gains, while this cycle, nearly $700 billion has only driven a 689% increase. The next bull run cannot rely solely on retail ETFs; it requires deep institutional allocation and for Bitcoin to become a mainstream macro asset. Currently, the institutional transformation is still in its early stages. If Bitcoin absorbs over $1 trillion in realized market cap, a new wave of explosive growth can be expected. Gold's current market cap is about $27 trillion, which can serve as a reference.