On-chain options finally stopped copying Deribit’s homework; the shift toward yield products + prediction markets is quite interesting. Polymarket’s monthly trading volume breaking over 10 billion is indeed impressive.

According to a report from Castle Labs, the on-chain options market is shifting from an early "copy Deribit" model toward various forms such as yield products, RFQ/CLOB, short-cycle binary options, and prediction markets. Currently, the 30-day notional trading volume of on-chain options is approximately $1.44 billion, with premium volume hitting an all-time high this year. The report also points out that over the past 18 months, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has grown from about $2 billion to approximately $30 billion; in June, this category generated over $300 million in fees, nearly twice the fees of categories such as Lending. Among them, Polymarket's monthly trading volume has exceeded $10 billion, primarily driven by crypto, sports, and political categories; Kalshi accounts for more than 65% of the total trading volume in prediction markets.