Post Market Thoughts - 1 Jul 26

Despite SPX being up for the day, Nasdaq was down 1.5%. This was in spite of the massive gains on the hyperscalers. Which goes to underscore the massive pain on semis. Neoclouds was the hardest hit sector with the largest leaders down ~15%. $INTC, $AMD were not spared as well.
Interestingly, $NVDA held up well. This indicates that the move today was more reminiscent of a positioning squeeze into a thin tape. Semis holder fresh off the PTSD of the June roller coaster ride probably shorn off even more exposure today. Taking last week's risk paring into consideration, this is finally bringing down the semi exposure for instis.
Going into the Asia open, we have $EWY down 8%, which indicates a bloody open for the KOSPI. Given the recent weakness in SKHYNIX, the KOSPI ants might face their first challenge as they navigate an ugly tape.
There have been many accounts that have broken out the $META news and thoroughly debunked it. I have spilled some ink on it as well. So there is no need to rehash most of the points.
This represents a similar set up to $BE and $CRDO last friday where we had mechanical flows that sold first and asked questions later. If the capex situation continues, i believe that the current spot prices offer great risk reward vs the day before (why do people like to buy when prices are high and shy away when prices are low)
$NBIS - 220s/230s (this was an area of support for NBIS previously, further down is 205)
$ALAB - 425s (wow, it was almost 500 yesterday)
$SNDK - 2000s (decent risk reward for a play, especially if NAND becomes useful for HBF and HBF like)
$CRDO -250s (value zone)
Finally, sell offs like this give great opportunities for long term purchases. However, allocating into such a sell off requires conviction. Conviction can only be built if you truly have a thesis, otherwise in times of stress, you will be scared to pull the trigger. Now, of course i am scared as well. However, being disciplined about allocating means i must allocate here and also take profits when i am feeling good.