Prediction Markets Peg USMNT as Favorite Against Bosnia, With Oddsmakers Hoping For Penalty Shootout

Prediction markets have pegged the United States as an overwhelming favorite to reach the World Cup’s Round of 16 when the host nation meets Bosnia and Herzegovina in Santa Clara, even as traders soured on the Americans’ odds of winning the tournament outright.

Key Takeaways:

• • Kalshi traders price the USMNT at 85% to advance past Bosnia in Round of 32 tie.
• • The same market gives the U.S. just a ~5% chance to win the World Cup, down sharply after a tougher draw.
• • The U.S. team is priced at 48% to cover a -1.5 goal margin.

How the markets see USA-Bosnia

At the time of writing, the USA is priced at 85% to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 of the FIFA World Cup, making for one of the most lopsided knockout prices on the board. Bosnia reached the knockout round as the highest-ranked third-place finisher after a 1-1-1 group stage in which it was outscored 6-5, while the U.S. topped its group despite a 3-2 loss to Türkiye in a dead-rubber final match with heavy squad rotation.

The margin, though, is less certain than the outcome. Kalshi’s regulation-time market prices the U.S. at roughly 48% to win by two or more goals, meaning traders see a comfortable-but-not-blowout result as close to a coin flip. Caesars’ head of soccer trading, Mark Bickerdike, described a similar picture to FOX Sports from the sportsbook side, noting the desk had been struck by the volume of patriotic money: “It’s half understandable, but equally, we were surprised to see the scale of the action,” he said. He added that the book’s preferred outcome is not just a U.S. win but a tight one: “Absolutely, a draw in 90 minutes is preferred, regardless of the result after that,” with “the USA winning on penalties” the ideal for continued engagement. Bickerdike said most of the book’s liability sits on the Over.

Where traders have turned cautious is the bigger picture. Kalshi now prices the U.S. at roughly 5% to win the tournament outright, and the contract on the Americans being eliminated in the next round of play has climbed from 26% to 35% in under a week, reflecting a harder projected path – a probable meeting with Belgium or Senegal next, and heavyweights beyond. On Polymarket, the offshore competitor, the same title bet trades even lower, at around 3%. For the Bosnia game, trades have the USMNT at 90% to advance, rounded, with the split at 70% for an outright win, 20% for the bookies’ preferred full-time draw, and 11% for a U.S. loss in regulation.

Prediction markets have become a fixture of this World Cup, with volumes across the sector running into the tens of billions of dollars monthly and platforms adding ever more granular in-game contracts. That growth has drawn intensifying regulatory pressure on both sides of the Atlantic, with nine European gambling regulators pledging coordinated action against unlicensed prediction markets, but for now the tournament has become one of the busiest event-contract categories on the board.