- ETFs suffer record billions in losses in June as investors exit:

June was particularly weak, with Bitcoin falling over 20%, its largest monthly decline since 2022. Meanwhile, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of nearly $4.5 billion, the largest since the funds launched in 2024, breaking the pattern of previous corrections where institutional inflows stabilized prices.

This time, persistent redemptions point to distribution rather than accumulation. However, market indicators do not yet signal a full deleveraging event — funding rates remain relatively stable, open interest hasn't collapsed, and trading volumes haven't spiked sharply as in capitulation cases — suggesting these outflows have not yet heralded a structural exit from the market, although sustained weakness reflects growing caution.

- What's behind this decline? A new strategy titled "Profit-Taking Plan" offers limited support
The divergence of cryptocurrencies from equities (more pronounced in Q2 as noted above) highlights a clear split in market leadership, as ETF outflows, higher-for-longer interest rates — diverting capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto — and geopolitical tensions influence demand.

Concerns about Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, have added pressure, as investors reconsider their previous confidence in its financing model, raising doubts about its role as a permanent buyer. The company's shift toward asset monetization under its new capital plan — including potential Bitcoin sales, share buybacks, and funding its US dollar reserves — points to liquidity strains. While these actions aim to stabilize the balance sheet, they offer little support to the overall market.

Looking ahead, Fed policy remains the key driver, with markets pricing in tightening risks as early as September. Friday's US jobs data is the next major catalyst, as interest rate expectations continue to impact cryptocurrencies — just like gold — increasing the correlation between the two assets.

- Bitcoin's correlation with gold increases, influenced by its weakness:
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in particular, Bitcoin's behavior has changed notably. Previously trading in tandem with equities, it is now clearly decoupling from the Nasdaq, with correlation approaching zero (-0.02, as shown in the chart; source: LSEG).

At the same time, its rising positive correlation with gold (average correlation around 0.50) highlights growing alignment with macro and safe-haven dynamics. This signals a significant shift toward liquidity and interest rate-based trading rather than just risk-on sentiment.

However, Bitcoin is not fulfilling its favored "digital gold" narrative; instead, it mirrors the current "slide" of the precious metal, as both non-yielding assets struggle to hold key support amid limited catalysts.

"Crypto President"? Trump rakes in huge profits from crypto boom - Where are client yachts?
In another countertrend, reports say US President Donald Trump earned over $1.4 billion from crypto projects, primarily through $635 million in memecoin proceeds (CIC Digital) and roughly $500 million in token sales through World Liberty Financial, his flagship crypto venture.

These projects formed the largest contributor to his massive 2025 fortune, surpassing traditional income sources like real estate and resorts. However, while profits were driven by issuances and cash flows, participants' outcomes were far less positive, with token values plummeting after launch, highlighting the gap between early monetization gains and broader market outcomes.
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