On July 1, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is in a clear bearish trend, with the price around **$1,574** and all major moving averages pressing above the price, forming a bearish alignment. Institutional sentiment is also cautious, with Citigroup having lowered its 12-month target price for ETH to $2,240.

Core Strategy: Primarily follow the trend and take short positions at highs, supplemented by defensive counterattacks. Spot traders should strictly control positions and not easily buy the dip.

Key Levels

· Upper Resistance: $1,602 - $1,630 (first hurdle), $1,667 (20-day moving average, trend reversal watershed).
· Lower Support: $1,548 - $1,522, $1,515 (last line of defense, lower Bollinger Band).

Two Trading Approaches

· Short on bounce (high reward): If price rebounds to the $1,605 - $1,620 range and faces resistance, you can lightly short.
· Follow trend to short (high confidence): If the daily chart breaks below $1,515** with volume, you can follow the trend, targeting **$1,450 or even $1,380.

Two Major Risk Variables

· Bear Trap: Currently, retail investors and some large holders have up to 70%-75% long positions, and the staking volume is still rising. Be wary of the main forces using this to counterattack longs.
· Extreme Oversold: The Stochastic indicator has entered the oversold zone, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term. Be sure to set a stop-loss when shorting.
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