BTC short-term rally of 0.82% in 15 minutes: institutional capital inflows and supply tightening combine to push rebound

Between 13:45 and 14:00 UTC on July 1, 2026, BTC surged rapidly within 15 minutes, delivering a +0.82% return. The price rose from 58,941.4 USDT to 59,508.6 USDT, with a swing of 0.96%. During this period, market volatility intensified and buying sentiment clearly warmed up.

The main driver behind this price move was the sustained inflow of institutional funds. Since December 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained steady net inflows, with a monthly inflow size of 457 million US dollars. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for more than 60% of the market share. Ongoing ETF buying has continued to translate into demand in the spot market, forming a direct upward force on prices.

Second, holders’ willingness to sell has dropped significantly. Data shows that over the past 180 days, the proportion of active supply has fallen to 28.4%, placing it in the low percentile range of 34. This indicates that long-term holders are more inclined to keep their positions rather than sell, tightening market circulating supply. At the same time, in early June there was a single day on the Bitcoin on-chain data with 10,095 large transactions exceeding 100,000 US dollars, reaching a six-week high. The whales’ pre-positioning gradually began to be reflected in prices about one month later. On the technical side, July’s historical performance is typically positive, and when combined with reversal demand from oversold indicators, it further amplifies the upside room during this period.

Going forward, key items to watch include the effectiveness of support around 58,900 US dollars and changes in ETF fund flows. Short-term volatility risks remain, so it is recommended to track the distribution of on-chain holder costs and the macro liquidity environment.