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$BTC is back at a familiar point in the cycle.
The monthly candle closed below the 50 MA, and the MACD is now at its weakest level since the last bear market. In the past, this is where fear was highest, but it also marked good accumulation areas.
At the same time, the macro picture is getting better:
• ISM PMI is at a 4-year high
• Oil is below $68.50, helping ease inflation
• Job openings are at a 2-year high
If the 4-year cycle plays out again, the next 2–3 months could be the last good accumulation phase before the next big move.
The key level to watch is $62.6K (200W MA). A move above it would be bullish. Until then, expect more volatility.