#特朗普披露持有超1亿美元BTCETH

As of July 1, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) price fluctuates in the range of $1,575 - $1,603. The 24-hour change ranges from -0.98% to +0.85%, and the market is in a volatile pattern of long-short tug-of-war.

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Technical Analysis: Key Levels on the 4-Hour Chart

Bearish Signals (Resistance)

· Moving Average Suppression: The 7-period MA ($1,578), 20-period MA ($1,667), and 50-period MA ($1,848) are all above the price, forming a bearish alignment.
· Bollinger Bands: The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are moving downward, with the price under pressure below the middle band.
· MACD: The two lines continue to decline, with bearish power still being released.

Bullish Signals (Support)

· Oversold Bounce: The stochastic indicator (KDJ) is in the oversold zone (23/18), with the %K line crossing above the %D line, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.
· Lower Bollinger Band: The lower band at $1,515 constitutes a **key support**. If broken, it could accelerate the decline to $1,400 or even lower.
· Buy Order Advantage: The buy-side order book depth is 1.61 times higher than the sell-side.

4-Hour Core Range

· Upper Resistance: $1,585 (bounce confirmation level) → $1,602 (recent high) → $1,630
· Lower Support: $1,548 (first level) → $1,522 → $1,515 (lifeline)

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Market Sentiment and Fundamentals

· Contradictory Capital Flow: Retail and large traders' long position ratio is as high as 70%-75.7%, but the actual order flow shows net selling (149K buys vs 163K sells).
· Funding Rate: 0.0062% is nearly zero, with no extreme holding costs.
· Institutional Bearishness: Citibank sharply lowered its 12-month target price for Ethereum from $3,175 to **$2,240**, expecting ETF net inflows to zero.
· First Half Performance: ETH has fallen nearly 50% cumulatively in the first half of 2026.

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Summary: ETH is in a low-level consolidation and bottoming phase on the 4-hour chart. The overall bearish trend remains unchanged, but short-term oversold conditions may trigger a technical rebound. $1,515 is the key watershed determining the short-term direction—holding it could lead to a volatile rebound, while losing it may open up greater downside room.