Tonight, the market directly enters a dual-game window of super data + top-level speeches. Interest rate hike rumors continue to ferment. Jing Yue helps everyone organize and highlights the main points.

At 20:15, the small non-farm ADP; at 21:45, manufacturing PMI final; at 22:00, ISM manufacturing data continuous bombardment. At 21:00, the highlight of the whole night — the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada, four central bank governors jointly hold a policy dialogue. A five-star heavyweight level, one sentence can trigger long-short pin attacks and stop-loss sweeps.

The core contradiction in the current market is very clear: U.S. employment and manufacturing continue to outperform expectations and are resilient. Funds are starting to price in delayed rate cuts or even a restart of rate hikes. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are favored by longs, and risk assets are naturally under pressure.

Jing Yue will combine historical data and provide personal practical ideas.
First, ADP and PMI data are just appetizers. The speeches of the four central bank governors at 21:00 are the top priority. Do not bet on ADP in advance; beware of sudden hawkish remarks from officials that could directly reverse the market and harvest you.
Second, we can respond with three scenarios: If the four governors collectively turn hawkish and employment/manufacturing data all show strength, then follow the trend and go short; rebounds are opportunities to short. If officials' views diverge and data are mixed, only do range-bound high-sell and low-buy, strictly control positions, and trade quickly. If they collectively release dovish statements and economic data weaken significantly, you can take short-term light positions to catch a rebound, but don't blindly bet on a reversal; the bearish trend will not be reversed by this.
Third, from a macro perspective, the medium-term logic hasn't changed. As long as the U.S. economy remains resilient, the high-interest rate cycle will be prolonged. Before clear dovish signals are confirmed, all rebounds are defined as weak corrections. Do not chase longs.
The most important point is that tonight, multiple factors will overlap and volatility will sharply increase. Stop losses must be set. Before the data release, reduce positions by half to avoid sudden pin attacks and large losses. #Sharplink增持1万枚ETH $ETH $BTC