2026-7-1

Last night it hit the expected 578. My limit order was placed at 578, but it didn't fill, missing by a few dollars😂. Whatever, it didn't fill... Before it breaks above this trendline, it can only be "suppressed". The resistance level will gradually rise along with the upward movement of the old bullish trendline. To correct the new bullish trendline, a higher low on the 4-hour timeframe is needed. Wait for a retest confirmation.
The current resistance is still 591-593. I opened a short near 593~594, with a stop loss just a little above 59650. If it gets stopped out, let it go. For going long, you can only add positions gradually. A "two-stage reversal" requires one of the following two conditions: 1) A volume-driven drop, all at once, followed by a "violent" bounce—this indicates the leg down is complete and will be followed by a period of volatile upward movement. 2) No volume surge, but a large "rounding bottom" pattern forms on the 4-hour or higher time frame (first consolidation and bottoming, then the bottom slowly rises, breaking above the nearest 4-hour resistance. For the current market, after consolidating around 581-587, a 4-hour close above 593 would indicate the end of the correction and the start of a new volatile upward trend). Until either occurs, only "defensive" position building is allowed (only enter positions, slowly add to them—for BTC positions, do not add when the price difference is less than 3%).
In July, there will be a volatile upward movement; it will come no matter what, but it's a bounce, not a true V-shaped reversal. So if you hold BTC around 60k or ETH around 1,600, there's really no need to worry—you will be able to take profit. For positions that are very unsuitable, slowly scalping will be better. For the positions you took lower, reduce them as needed. The essence of scalping is not constantly adding at lows and shorting at highs, but to adjust the average price while keeping the maximum position nearly unchanged.
For long position defense, still keep an eye on 583-581. The 578 level was used once last night. It can be used at most one more time before it breaks. Be mentally prepared; don't place heavy orders at 578. If it truly breaks, the probability of going directly to 55x is not small, and that would be even more painful.
In this kind of crappy market, it's better to find something else to do, even watch a short drama. Observe more and trade less—it can reduce a lot of unnecessary losses.