#加密市场观察 Crypto Daily: Bitcoin Hovers at $59K, Bleeding and Hawkish Pressure

1. Today's Outlook
Bitcoin and Ethereum, in the past 24 hours, one slightly dropped and the other slightly rose, basically staying put. But zooming out, over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen 5.54%, now sliding to the lower edge of this week's trading range. More strikingly, the Fear and Greed Index is only at 10, a reading typically seen during extreme market fear, yet the price hasn't collapsed. This suggests that bearish selling pressure has weakened considerably, but bullish confidence hasn't recovered either. The two sides are locked in a struggle, resulting in this low-volume sideways movement.
Behind the stagnant market, two forces are pulling.
On one side, hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Harker directly hinted that inflation is still too high and that rate hikes might even be necessary. Although interest rate futures markets show over a 60% probability of no move in July, the mere mention of "rate hikes" is enough to tighten nerves in risk assets.
On the other side, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, with outflows in June hitting a record. This level of capital withdrawal directly drains spot market buying pressure. Meanwhile, futures side still has money flowing in. The misaligned structure of selling spot and buying futures is unhealthy, reflecting that many people are just using contracts to gamble on short-term moves, unwilling to commit real money to spot positions.
In the near term, the market will likely continue grinding in this纠结 state. Downward momentum has been largely consumed by the consecutive declines, but for a rebound, we need to see the ETF bleeding stop, or for the Fed to ease its tone at tonight's ECB forum.
At 9:39 PM tonight, Fed Chair Warsh and ECB President Lagarde will speak on the same stage. Coupled with tomorrow night's US non-farm payroll data, large capital will likely stay put before these two time points. The market will continue to digest policy uncertainty through sideways movement.

2. Today's News
1. Fed's Harker: Inflation still too high, Fed may need to consider rate hikes
This comment directly pushed up market concerns about interest rates. Interest rates represent the cost of capital. As rate hike expectations rise, hot money becomes more inclined to retreat from high-volatility cryptocurrencies. If more Fed officials join the hawkish chorus, valuation pressure on risk assets will continue to accumulate.
2. Probability of Fed holding rates steady in July is 66.3%
Pricing in the interest rate futures market shows that the market currently sees a high probability of no rate hike in July, but the one-third probability of a hike is not negligible. This data itself serves as a buffer to the first hawkish remark, indicating that the market is not fully convinced, but does not dare to completely disbelieve either. Every subsequent Fed speech or employment data point will cause this probability to fluctuate, directly impacting short-term risk appetite in the crypto market.
3. US crypto-concept stocks mostly fell, Circle down over 17%
Stablecoin giant Circle's stock price plummeted, dragging down sentiment in the US crypto sector. Such a sharp drop in stock price indicates that traditional capital's appetite for the crypto track is shrinking, which will suppress risk appetite in the crypto space. If the US crypto stock sector continues to weaken, the crypto market will find it hard to stay immune.
4. 140 giants jointly push a competitor targeting USDC's profit lifeline
VISA, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase, and over 140 other companies formed the Open Standard Alliance, launching Open USD. Its core selling point is returning the interest income from reserve Treasuries to enterprise users, directly attacking Circle's lifeline. Last year, almost all of Circle's revenue came from reserve income. Traditional payment giants, with their compliance and channel advantages, are entering the fray. The competitive landscape of the stablecoin track will change, and USDC's monopoly position faces a real threat. This is also the core trigger for Circle's stock price crash. Going forward, we need to watch if enterprise users will migrate en masse.
5. Survey: 88% of enterprises plan to adopt stablecoins in the next year, cross-border payment costs average 35% lower
Enterprise demand for stablecoins is genuinely growing. Saving money on cross-border payments is the strongest logic. In the long term, this is a big step for crypto assets from speculation to practical use, providing underlying demand support for the entire ecosystem. But in the short term, this positive is offset by Circle's negative news and regulatory shadows. The market is not yet focused on this fundamental.
6. US media: Reluctant to cooperate with US military at critical moment, rift between US and Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is obstructing US military cooperation, with the White House once threatening to cut off missile interceptor supplies. Deepening geopolitical rifts in the Middle East typically push capital towards safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold, while high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies are often neglected. If the US actually reduces its military presence in Saudi Arabia, regional uncertainty rises, further pressuring risk assets.
7. UK crypto investors sue Bn and CZ, claiming $200 million
Nearly 1,700 UK investors accuse Bn of illegally offering derivatives to retail investors. Such large-scale lawsuits will deepen regulatory scrutiny of exchanges, and other jurisdictions may follow suit. For the crypto space, exchange compliance costs rise, retail participation barriers increase, and short-term sentiment is negative.

3. Crypto Calendar
Today's Events
08:00: GoPlus Security unlocks approximately 708 million tokens — A large number of new tokens suddenly gain free circulation rights, equivalent to a surge in inventory. If holders choose to cash out, it will form direct selling pressure.
08:00: Sui unlocks approximately 13.72 million tokens — New sellable chips enter the market. Need to observe if project parties or early investors take the opportunity to reduce holdings.
12:00: EigenCloud unlocks approximately 36.82 million tokens — Supply side expands again. The unlock itself does not change project value, but in the short term, it will test the market's depth to absorb.
21:39: Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, and others speak at the ECB forum — Global central bank heads appear together. Every word on interest rates and inflation will affect capital's pricing of risk assets.
Future Events
July 2, 02:00: Robinhood previews "Crypto New Era," may announce tokenized financial products — Mainstream brokerages double down on crypto business. If the product is impressive, it could bring new users and capital inflows.
July 2, 20:30: US June non-farm payroll data released — Employment data is the core indicator for the Fed to measure economic heat. The strength of the numbers will directly rewrite market expectations for the rate path.
July 2, TBD: Securitize plans to list on NYSE under ticker SECZ — Crypto infrastructure company listing on a traditional main board. If successful, it will boost the compliance narrative for the entire sector.

4. Sentiment Monitor
The most纠结 issue among the public right now is the continuous net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. Does this represent institutional capital fully retreating, or is it just a rebalancing of positions within large funds? The two interpretations are sharply divided, and panic sentiment is thus held at extreme lows. Confirmed facts show that June's overall outflow scale set a record. Someone is indeed selling on the spot side, while on the futures side, capital is still coming in. This misalignment between spot and contracts makes many people uneasy. On the rumor level, an unverified hypothesis suggests that ETF funds may be shifting from Bitcoin to other tokens, but this has not been widely confirmed. On the other side, discussions about macro rates mostly remain in the shadow realm. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials are repeatedly mulled over, but the market has not formed a unified consensus on the rate path. Overall, sentiment is caught between bleeding and hawkish pressure. Most choose to shrink and wait, neither daring to be boldly bearish nor expecting a reversal.