When the World Cup reaches the knockout stage, the prediction market track is simultaneously playing out two completely opposite dramas.

The first drama: getting rich overnight. During the World Cup, a batch of strategy accounts on Polymarket turned $1.5 million in principal into $7.68 million in short-term gains, just within a few matches. The profit effect of "betting right on one match and multiplying your wealth several times" is sucking in a huge amount of money and attention into this track. Looks tempting, right? Want to jump in? Not so fast—let's look at the second drama.

The second drama: the crackdown. While stories of overnight riches are flying everywhere, the regulatory hammer is also falling one by one. The CFTC is investigating Polymarket, some states have begun restricting Kalshi, and the SEC is also soliciting public comments on products like prediction markets. In the past, regulators turned a blind eye, but now they've clearly shifted from "watching" to "taking action."

So the picture on this track right now is particularly contradictory: on one side, people are getting rich overnight, posting screenshots of multiples or tens of times their returns; on the other side, regulators are sharpening their knives, ready to rewrite the rules at any moment. Where the fire burns hottest is often where water is poured most urgently.

I'm not stopping you from having fun—placing a small bet on the World Cup for the thrill is fine, enjoy yourself. I just want to remind you, before you get blinded by those screenshots of wealth and prepare to go all in: what you see is the $7.68 million someone else is flaunting. What you don't see is the regulator's guillotine that could fall at any moment, and the many more who lost their bets and quietly left without posting anything.

The thrill of winning a bet on a single match and the risk of betting your entire fortune are sold as a package. It's okay to bet a little for fun while watching the game, but don't mistake this for a legitimate way to get rich. There are still several games left in the World Cup—watch them slowly, and don't get carried away.