Sudden! $BTC plummeted to 57800, panic index 17! But the big shots say: Don't buy the dip, this wave is still going to drop to 46k?

On July 1, $BTC broke through $57,800, retracing more than half from its all-time high of $126k, hitting a new low since October '24. $ETH is still lingering around 1,600, with its monthly chart dropping for ten consecutive months. The Fear & Greed Index is only 17, indicating extreme fear.

The Nasdaq is still hovering around 26,200, and the S&P 500 at 7,500. $SOL has been in a correction since last October for nearly a year now—why is it so bad? Two swords are hanging: the spot ETF is experiencing massive net outflows, and the expectation of rate cuts has almost vanished.

From mid-May to June this year, $BTC 's spot ETF experienced the largest capital flight in history. After May 1, there were only 9 days of net inflows, with pitifully small amounts—no single day exceeding $140 million. What about net outflows? There were 4 days with single-day outflows exceeding $600 million, with several consecutive days of selling. Institutions and retail investors dumped through the ETF channel, creating a mountain of selling pressure, and the price couldn't hold key supports. This is in stark contrast to the frenzy of capital inflows in 2025. This structural reversal is the most direct cause of the current correction.

Rate cuts are also off the table. According to Kalshi data, the market is pricing a 77.8% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this year, and only a 19.6% chance of a single 25bps cut. Inflation remains uncontained, geopolitical disturbances persist, and expectations of high rates or even rate hikes are growing. High real yields make cash and bonds attractive, draining capital from high-risk assets like $BTC . The 10-year Treasury yield is lingering at high levels, suppressing leveraged funds and risk appetite. Investors fear that if the Fed remains hawkish, the adjustment cycle could be prolonged.

So where exactly is the bottom? History can serve as a reference. In the 2018 bear market, the bottom (monthly average) retraced 77% from the top; in 2022, it retraced 73%. Assuming this cycle retraces 60% from $116.6k, the bottom would be around $46k.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael tweeted that institutional demand has not absorbed new supply at all; instead, they are selling. Over the past month, the ETF net outflow was 71.6k $BTC, and digital asset treasury companies only added 7,500 BTC. After deducting issuance, the combined net outflow from ETFs and DATs was 77k BTC. Until net outflows turn positive, every rebound will face sustained selling pressure. He pointed out on June 5, when $BTC was around $62k, that the bottom for this cycle is likely between $46k and $54k, based on two on-chain indicators: realized price ≈ $54k (overall market cost basis), and Cycle Value at Day Destruction (CVDD) ≈ $46.2k (historical bottoms often form 5%-18% above this level).

BIT published an article in mid-June stating that technically, the top pattern in 2025 is highly similar to that in 2021—a rapid surge, a breakdown below the 21-week moving average, a rebound, and then weakening again. Historical experience suggests that true bottoms are often accompanied by declining volume and a narrowing trading range, rather than a quick reversal. The Fear & Greed Index is already at historic lows, and the stochastic indicator is deeply oversold. Combined with Elliott Wave theory, since the bear market began last October, $BTC has entered an A-B-C corrective structure. Wave B ended with a rebound to $83k in mid-May, and the current Wave C decline is unfolding, with a target possibly around $50k. The low is expected to occur around the 2026 FIFA World Cup (June 11 to July 19). Overall, the bear market is entering its final stage, with $50k–$55k likely being the core bottom range.

Wintermute's report suggests that sentiment has entered extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 18 to 24, and about half of $BTC 's circulating supply is underwater—all close to historical bear market bottom characteristics. However, what is truly lacking is renewed capital inflows; the spot ETF has recently seen net outflows of about $1.8 billion, and stablecoin and other liquidity indicators have not improved. $BTC reserve companies have started reserving the right to sell $BTC to pay dividends, meaning that 'permanent buying' is turning into 'conditional buying.' Wintermute expects that due to seasonal effects, the crypto market is unlikely to complete its bottom during summer; instead, the true bottom is more likely to occur around September to October. Subsequent trends will depend on the macro environment, the cooling of the AI sector, and whether capital flows return.

Liquid Capital founder JackYi tweeted, 'This is the third wave of decline since October 11. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this is the last major drop. Everyone cares most about the bottom price, which mainly depends on the U.S. stock market and MicroStrategy. We don't know whether the Fed's concerns about CPI will trigger changes in expectations of rate cuts or even rate hikes, leading to a sustained correction in U.S. stocks. In past bear markets, black swans or explosions often appeared in the tail end, but this time they haven't yet—needs close monitoring. Based on $BTC 's high of $126k, a 60% drop would be $51k, and a 66% drop would be $43k. In any case, July to August should be the final period and the best time to buy the dip, even the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.'

Jiang Zhuo'er, founder of the Laibite mining pool, tweeted on June 25 that MSTR's mNAV has fallen to 0.72, close to the historical low of 0.7 in May 2022, putting it at a trough in this cycle. However, mNAV bottoms typically precede $BTC price bottoms by about 6 months. In the previous cycle, the mNAV low corresponded to $BTC at around $31k, while $BTC 's actual bottom appeared at $15.5k in November 2022. Based on the four-year cycle and mathematical models, he predicts that $BTC 's bear market will bottom between October and December this year, with a price range of approximately $42k to $44k.

Polymarket's data is more straightforward: the market is betting on a 79% probability that $BTC will fall below $55k this year, 65% below $50k, 30% below $40k, 17% below $35k, and 13% below $30k. The prediction market's trading volume has exceeded $45.42 million.

So, is now not a good opportunity to buy the dip? Many signals point to a bottom between $42k and $54k, with timing between September and December. But don't rush in—historically, the tail end of a bear market often includes one final drop; the Fear & Greed Index hasn't yet reached its most extreme level, and ETF outflows haven't reversed. The market is waiting for a truly panicked moment, perhaps a black swan. Retail investors, hold your horses and wait for the signal.

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