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Brothers! The first day of July is already this exciting 🔥🔥🔥
Latest update! Tonight at 21:00 (Beijing time), Fed Chair Wash will appear at the ECB Global Central Banking Forum!
Also on the stage are Lagarde, Bailey, and McKlem—four central bank heads together in one frame.
This is Wash’s first time speaking on the international stage since taking office, and the market is watching whether he’ll still be as hawkish as he was at the June meeting. Last time, he mentioned “price stability” eight times, directly stoking concerns about rate hikes. If he brings the heat with tough talk again tonight, some risk assets are going to get hit.
According to CME data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in July is already 33.7%. Tomorrow there’s also June’s non-farm data, with an expected unemployment rate of 4.3% and 87k new jobs. Two major events crammed together—this pace is unreal.
Market snapshot:
Bitcoin $BTC 58,748, trading just below the EMA5. The middle Bollinger band at 58,728 is barely holding it up. RSI6 is only 41.78. Even though the MACD has a golden cross, the DIF is still negative. This spot is neither up nor down—direction is unclear.
Ethereum $ETH 1,580: RSI6 is 46.07. The MACD is above the 0 axis, slightly stronger than BTC.
Gold $XAU 3,972: RSI6 is only 15.04—severely oversold! The lower Bollinger band at 3,969.6 is holding it up. But DIF is -12.6 and DEA is -8.2; the bearish alignment remains unchanged.
WTI $CL Crude oil breaks below 70, last quoted at 69.71. RSI6 at 24.02 is also oversold, and the lower Bollinger band at 69.36 is practically at the bottom of the screen.
In addition, MiCA officially took effect today. The EU’s comprehensive crypto regulation is fully rolled out, and the compliance track is being reshuffled. This is likely to have deep long-term impact, but in the short term the market may not have fully digested it yet.
Tonight, will Wash be hawkish or dovish? Will tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls top expectations? Can Bitcoin hold that key level around 58k?
Share your views in the comments 👇
#欧盟MiCA监管条例7月1日生效