Just because payment giants like Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard formed an alliance to launch Open USD, $CRCL 's stock price suffered its largest single-day decline since listing. @circle What exactly is going on? Can we continue dollar-cost averaging? Let me share my personal views:

1) I started building a position and dollar-cost averaging CRCL at around $80. My reasoning is that after the CLARITY Act is passed, stablecoins, especially compliant stablecoins like USDC, will be a powerful branch for dollar-denominated debt management. Given that the AI technology theme continues to hover at high levels, I believe that dollar-cost averaging CRCL now will present a trend-like major opportunity similar to positioning in $NVDA a few years ago, after three to five years.
Don't argue with me. This type of trend investment only requires looking at two simple points: 1. Stablecoins will definitely achieve global adoption; 2. Circle is the first compliant stablecoin issuer.
2) In the short term, the bearish factors for CRCL indeed far outweigh the bullish ones. Circle's main revenue comes from interest income on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds held as reserves for USDC. The market currently expects an interest rate cut cycle. Additionally, the controversial provision in the CLARITY Act that prohibits stablecoins from earning interest, and Circle's forced revenue sharing with powerful distribution channels like Coinbase and Hyperliquid, are all short-term negatives for Circle.
The launch of Open USD this time is also because the market expects further diversion of USDC's distribution channel advantages. In other words, the market cannot see where Circle's moat for USDC lies, nor can it see where Circle's next growth increment is, nor can it see what Circle will rely on to ensure it won't be overtaken by competitors.
3) Therefore, this violent decline is mainly the market's pre-pricing of many uncertain negative factors for Circle, and it is not directly causally related to the launch of Open USD or the alliance of over 100 institutions including Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard.
Because the stablecoin market share is not yet solidified. Once a clear bill is passed and institutional funds flood in, the stablecoin pie will grow exponentially. So what if there is one more channel competitor? USDC still has its irreplaceable advantages. Even if a newly launched stablecoin has a stronger TradFi foundation than Circle, it would still be quite difficult to quickly capture Circle's market share in the native DeFi market.
Therefore, this is definitely an overreactive crash. It reflects only the market's worry about not knowing where Circle's moat is, and it is an emotional exaggeration compared to Circle's true fundamentals.
4) Once these issues are clarified, the next steps become very clear. I will still choose to continue dollar-cost averaging, set a certain position limit, and dynamically adjust the position based on subsequent USDC supply growth rate and channel renewal progress.
Especially around the time window when the CLARITY Act is passed, CRCL's market position as the first listed compliant stablecoin remains stable. Once the market's expectation for the stablecoin mega-trend is "confirmed," a corresponding valuation scale will naturally be assigned to CRCL again.