Track real-time hotspots in the crypto market and seize the best trading opportunities! Today is Wednesday, July 1, 2026. I am Wang Yib o! Good morning, crypto friends ☀ Regular followers check in 👍 Like for good fortune 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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💎 Macro Setting: From “When to Cut Rates” to “Whether to Raise Rates,” Hawkish Repricing Dominates July’s Opening 💎
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On the first trading day of July, the crypto market continued its weak consolidation pattern. Overnight, Bitcoin closed around 58,500, and Ethereum closed around 1,560. The total crypto market cap remained at about $2 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance above 57%, and capital still concentrating on leading assets.
The macro front is the core variable suppressing the market right now. After the June policy meeting, market logic underwent a fundamental shift—investors are no longer discussing “when to cut rates,” and have begun to evaluate whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. The White House released a signal that it respects the independence of the Walsh policy, reducing expectations that political forces could block a rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed around 4.40%, while the 2-year yield was 4.127%.
On the regulatory front, July 1 is the official end date of the transitional period for the EU’s MiCA regulation on crypto-assets. USDT is being removed from the European market, while USDC monopolizes the EU-compliant track. Short-term regulatory clean-up and liquidation may bring some selling pressure, but in the long run, clearer regulatory framework is positive for the industry.
For the crypto market, BTC and ETH are essentially high-beta assets tied to global liquidity and risk appetite. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising real yields, and slower ETF inflows will all suppress valuations. In the first half of July, be alert to the risk of a second pullback around the July 14 CPI data release.
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💎 Bitcoin: June Fell by About 19%, July Faces a Choice of Direction 💎
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Bitcoin fell about 18.5% in June, the weakest monthly performance since mid-2022. The current price is consolidating around $58,500, near the recent low zone. On the technical side, the price touched the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, and this area is BTC’s key short-term price support. The RSI indicator formed lower highs and lower lows, showing that although the overall structure is still biased upward, there are short-term bearish reversal signals.
The first resistance to watch is $62,450 (20-day EMA). If it breaks through and holds, you can look toward $64,000–$64,100. The next major supply zone is $66,600–$67,600. The key support below is at the $58,000 level; if it breaks, price may further test the $52,000–$55,000 area.
On the ETF fund flow front, yesterday’s BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $102 million, but the inflow magnitude has already fallen sharply compared with last week. Slowing inflows mean institutional buy-side support is weakening.
In terms of execution, the market is currently in a key support zone. Aggressive traders can try a small long position near $58,000–$58,500, with defense set below $57,500 and targets at $60,000–$60,800. Conservative traders should wait until the price gains strength and holds above $60,000 before considering long setups. If the price breaks below $57,500 with volume, you need to exit decisively; then watch the $55,000–$56,000 area.
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💎 Ethereum: Falls Back to Early 2021 Levels, Long-Term Holders Sink Into Losses 💎
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Ethereum has fallen back to the price level of early 2021. Many long-term holders who bought over the past five years are now at a loss. ETH has closed lower for three consecutive quarters, which is unprecedented in its history.
Technically, after failing to hold above $2,500, ETH continued to decline and is now in a low-range band of $1,550–$1,580. An AI model predicts that the average ETH price on July 1 will be about $1,780. The key support is $1,650–$1,680, and resistance is $1,750–$1,800—but the current price is already below these support levels, indicating severe short-term overselling.
Key resistance overhead is $1,620–$1,650. After a breakout with volume, you can look toward $1,750–$1,800. Support below is $1,500–$1,520; if that level is lost, price may further test $1,400–$1,450. Yesterday’s ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $31.8 million, indicating that institutional funds are still entering continuously.
For altcoins, today the Altcoin Season Index is at 22. Altcoins are generally weak, and insufficient liquidity may cause their downside to continue to exceed BTC. The total unlocking size for major projects in July is about $1.9 billion. As market liquidity increases, volatility risk will also heat up.
In terms of execution, aggressive traders can try a small long position near $1,550, with defense below $1,500 and targets at $1,620–$1,650. Conservative traders should wait for the price to stabilize or for a bottoming “volume expansion” signal before setting up. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, so the cost-effectiveness of going long ETH is temporarily not as good as going long BTC.
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💎 July’s Key Variables: CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls Will Determine Direction 💎
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The nonfarm payrolls data on July 2 will directly test the resilience of the U.S. labor market; the CPI data on July 14 will determine whether inflation is truly returning to the target path. If CPI remains hot, long-end Treasury yields and the dollar may rise in tandem, putting the crypto market under pressure again; if inflation data weakens, oil prices continue to fall, or the Fed downplays the likelihood of consecutive rate hikes at its July 29 meeting, the market may only then form a more reliable rebound.
What truly determines the direction of Q3 is not whether the Fed raises rates in July, but whether the market can confirm that this round of inflation is merely an energy shock rather than a more persistent second wave of inflation.
July baseline scenario: U.S. stocks trade with wide-range volatility, and internal rotation accelerates; BTC remains relatively resilient, while ETH and altcoins stay weak. In terms of execution, before the macro direction becomes clear, strictly control positions—total exposure should not exceed 50%, and each trade’s stop-loss must be set strictly within 2%. Patiently wait for the direction selection after CPI and the FOMC meeting.
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