OpenAI IPO Delayed Until 2027: How the “ten-thousand-character” Valuation Red Line Triggers a Restructuring of AI Capitalization Timelines

On June 8, 2026, OpenAI confidentially submitted its S-1 IPO filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the market once expected the world's most representative AI company to complete its listing in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. However, less than three weeks later, the New York Times, citing three people involved in internal discussions, reported that OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027. From "listing as soon as this year" to "wait a little longer," this reversal is not just about one company's listing pace, but also reflects a deeper restructuring underway in the AI capitalization process.

The Shadow of SpaceX: A Cautionary Tale for an IPO

The most direct trigger for OpenAI management's strategic shift was SpaceX's "largest IPO in history," completed in June 2026.

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12 at a price of $135 per share, raising over $85 billion, with a first-day valuation of $1.77 trillion. The stock price quickly rose after the opening, briefly exceeding $225 on June 16. However, the euphoria lasted only a few days—the stock then rapidly fell, once dropping to around $153, a decline of approximately 32% from its peak of $225. As of the close on July 1 Beijing time, SpaceX's stock rebounded to $170.86, up 4.06% on the day.

This price movement directly impacted OpenAI's decision-making. According to reports, OpenAI's advisory team cited SpaceX as a core cautionary case in a memo submitted to management. The advisors presented two options to CEO Sam Altman: either wait until 2027 to go public at a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the target valuation and list earlier. Altman's stance was clear—any plan below a $1 trillion valuation was "not up for discussion."

SpaceX's lesson: Even for a "first space economy stock" with reusable rocket technology, listed at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the public market could still impose severe pricing corrections within days. Although SpaceX's stock rebounded to $170.86 on July 1, it remains far below its peak of $225. If SpaceX couldn't hold its trillion-dollar valuation, whether OpenAI can achieve a higher valuation in the public market became a core question repeatedly posed by investment bankers to management.

The $1 Trillion Valuation Red Line: A 17% Premium Gap

There is a significant gap between the $1 trillion valuation red line that Altman insists on and OpenAI's current financial reality.

At the end of March 2026, OpenAI completed its latest funding round, raising $122 billion, with a post-money valuation of $852 billion. To jump from this level to $1 trillion, public market investors would need to pay a premium of about 17%. However, OpenAI's financial fundamentals are not yet strong enough to support this premium. In 2025, OpenAI achieved annual revenue of approximately $13 billion, but its net loss was as high as $38.5 billion to $39 billion, mainly due to spending of about $34 billion on computing infrastructure construction, R&D investment, and corporate restructuring. The company's goal for 2026 is to achieve revenue about three times that of last year, but as of now, monthly revenue is only about $2 billion. Based on this projection, to reach the full-year revenue target of $39 billion, average monthly revenue would need to increase significantly in the remaining months.

User growth is also facing bottlenecks. ChatGPT currently has about 900 million weekly active users, below the 1 billion target some investors had previously expected. New revenue sources—such as showing ads to users in free or low-cost plans and adding shopping features through partnerships with e-commerce platforms—are still in early testing stages.

Cash flow is also under pressure. In the first quarter of 2026, OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in cash, exceeding half of its $5.7 billion revenue for the same period. Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has reportedly advocated internally for a 2027 listing timeline, citing reasons including continued large cash burn, massive investment in computing infrastructure, and the disclosure burden that comes with being a public company.

Bridgewater Associates co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen has reportedly told clients that OpenAI's current implied valuation multiple is "pricing a monopoly outcome that doesn't yet exist." This assessment reveals the essence of OpenAI's valuation dilemma: private market pricing is based on the assumption of "AI winner-takes-all," while the public market demands a verifiable path to profitability.

Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Pressure: A Double Squeeze

OpenAI's hesitation to go public comes at a cost—not just time, but also the "first-mover" position.

Competitor Anthropic already submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq listing in October 2026, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. In May 2026, Anthropic completed a $65 billion Series H funding round, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. Even more pressure on OpenAI comes from fundamentals—Anthropic has disclosed that its annualized revenue has exceeded $47 billion.

At the same time, the political obstacles facing OpenAI are mounting. According to Reuters, the Trump administration, citing that GPT-5.6's capabilities are "too powerful," has required OpenAI to release new models in stages. Altman told employees that GPT-5.6 will first be released as a limited preview to some partners, and the government will "approve client access one by one" during the preview period. Anthropic's political situation is starkly different—on June 19, the Trump administration significantly softened its stance toward Anthropic, saying it no longer considers the company a national security threat.

Reshaping the Rhythm of AI Capitalization: From "Narrative-Driven" to "Profitability-Verified"

The delay of OpenAI's IPO reflects a paradigm shift in AI capitalization from "narrative-driven" to "profitability verification."

Over the past two years, valuation expansion in the AI sector has been built primarily on the single assumption of "perpetual growth in computing demand." But entering 2026, every link in this logic chain is being stress-tested: computing rental prices have fallen from their peaks, tech giants are collectively tightening AI budgets, and capital markets have begun evaluating every AI company using return on investment. When the market believes AI will significantly boost corporate profits, investors are willing to give high valuations; once the pace of commercialization disappoints, valuations can quickly correct.

This shift has clear signals in the secondary market. In June 2026, the combined market value of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks evaporated by nearly $2.8 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5% on June 26, recording its worst single-week performance since early April.

Notably, spending on AI agent software is surging from $86.4 billion in 2025 to $206.5 billion in 2026, a 139% increase. Enterprise application penetration has risen from less than 5% in 2025 to 40% by the end of 2026. This data suggests that AI agents are moving from proof-of-concept to large-scale deployment—but large-scale deployment itself also means greater capital consumption and longer return cycles, which is precisely the core proposition that OpenAI and other leading companies must explain to the public market.

Microsoft and Nvidia: Transmission Effects Along the AI Capital Chain

The ripple effects of OpenAI's IPO delay on the AI industry chain are already reflected in the stock price movements of Microsoft and Nvidia.

Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell about 18% cumulatively in June 2026, marking its worst monthly performance since December 2000, with market capitalization shrinking by more than $570 billion. As of the close on July 1 Beijing time, Microsoft shares ended at $373.02, up 1.21% on the day. Market concerns are deepening over Microsoft's sustained high investment in AI infrastructure and the extension of return cycles. As one of OpenAI's largest strategic investors, Microsoft's fate is deeply tied to OpenAI's capitalization process—the delay of OpenAI's IPO means Microsoft's stake in OpenAI lacks a public market pricing anchor, and the timeline for AI commercialization monetization is extended.

Nvidia (NVDA) is also under pressure. As of the close on July 1 Beijing time, Nvidia closed at $200.09, up 2.63% on the day. Although the stock rebounded on July 1, it has risen only about 6% year-to-date in 2026, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index's first-half gain of 12.79%. As the core supplier of AI computing power, Nvidia's valuation is highly dependent on the continuous expansion of AI capital expenditure—once the IPO financing plans of leading AI companies like OpenAI are delayed and capital spending slows, Nvidia's earnings expectations will face systematic downward revisions.

SoftBank Group provides another dimension of transmission effects. After news of OpenAI's IPO delay broke, SoftBank shares plunged more than 12% on the Tokyo market. The Japanese investment giant's committed total investment in OpenAI is expected to reach approximately $65 billion by October 2026. Analysts point out that an OpenAI listing would provide a public market pricing anchor for SoftBank's private equity holdings; the delay means that anchor disappears, and the market can only reflect the disappointment of dashed expectations in advance.

Concurrent Pressure on the Crypto Market: Resonance in Risk Assets

While traditional tech stocks are under pressure, the crypto market also suffered a heavy blow on the first trading day of July 2026.

On July 1, 2026 Beijing time, Bitcoin broke below the psychological level of $60,000 to $58,290, approaching its near-two-week low of $58,188. Ethereum simultaneously lost the $1,600 level, trading at $1,568. Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the market was about $249 million, with longs dominating the liquidations.

Multiple structural pressures are compounding behind the decline. In June 2026, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $4.06 billion, the largest single-month redemption since the product was approved for listing in January 2024. Bitcoin's overall decline in June was about 19%, one of the worst June performances on record. The total crypto market capitalization remains at about $2 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance exceeding 57%, as capital continues to concentrate on leading assets.

The crypto market and traditional tech stocks are showing resonance in this adjustment. In the early hours of July 1 Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher—the Nasdaq rose 1.52% to 26,213.72, the S&P 500 rose 0.78% to 7,449.36, and the Dow Jones rose 0.26% to 52,319.20. However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading on that day fell to 11 (Extreme Fear), remaining in the extreme fear zone. The simultaneous weakening of risk assets reflects the macro backdrop of tightening global liquidity and a systemic decline in risk appetite—and the signal of "AI capitalization falling short of expectations" released by OpenAI's IPO delay further reinforces this trend.

Structural Opportunities: Allocation Logic in the AI Capitalization Transition

Amid OpenAI's IPO delay and the shift from "narrative-driven" to "profitability-verified" AI capitalization, the market is not lacking opportunities, but the structure of opportunities is changing. Below are noteworthy targets available for trading on the Gate platform, organized from different dimensions.

The "Iron Triangle" of Computing Infrastructure: Optical Modules, Memory Chips, and Data Center Power Equipment

In its July Top Ten Stocks research report, China Galaxy Securities pointed out that computing hardware is the segment with the highest earnings delivery under the AI industry trend, forming an "iron triangle" of high-speed optical modules, memory chips, and data center power equipment.

AI Application Software: "Unexpected Beneficiaries" of OpenAI's IPO Delay

An interesting market phenomenon emerged after news of OpenAI's delayed IPO: software stocks, previously considered most vulnerable to AI disruption, surged instead. ServiceNow and Workday both rose more than 9%, while Figma and Datadog closed up more than 10% and 8%, respectively.

The logic behind this phenomenon: OpenAI's financial pressure and IPO delay mean that the timeline for AI to "fully replace" traditional software is extended, and the market has reassessed the survival space for software companies. RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria said, "The notion that enterprises will fully replace existing software solutions with AI does not align with reality."

Memory Chips: The Sub-Sector with the Highest Prosperity

Micron Technology's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue surged 346% year-over-year, adjusted EPS grew more than 12 times, and gross profit margin reached 84.9%, surpassing Nvidia. The company also signed 16 long-term supply agreements lasting 3-5 years, significantly improving revenue stability. Multiple investment banks believe the memory shortage pattern could extend into 2028.

AI Infrastructure: High-Speed Interconnect and Network Upgrades

As AI cluster scales expand, industry focus is shifting from simply piling on computing power to improving memory utilization and overall cluster efficiency. High-speed interconnects, CXL, and memory pooling have become important directions for the next stage.

Gate stock trading now supports over 12,500 stocks in the U.S., Hong Kong, and South Korea markets, and has been fully upgraded to 7×24 hour trading—covering pre-market, regular, after-hours, overnight, and weekend holiday periods. All U.S., Hong Kong, and South Korea stocks mentioned above are directly tradable on the Gate platform, supporting USDT direct trading and fractional shares starting from 0.01 shares.

Risk Warning

The above targets are based solely on public information and institutional research reports and do not constitute any investment advice. Valuation divergence within the AI sector is significant—Nvidia's forward P/E is about 20 times, Broadcom about 23 times, while Marvell is at 58 times and Astera is as high as 116 times. More than 60% of planned data center capacity for 2027 has not yet started construction, and 7% of projects under construction are delayed due to supply chain bottlenecks and power shortages. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance.

Conclusion

OpenAI's IPO delay to 2027 is ostensibly a listing pace adjustment caused by valuation disagreements, but at a deeper level, it marks a milestone event in the transition of AI capitalization from "narrative-driven" to "profitability-verified." SpaceX's post-listing volatility provided OpenAI with a close-range warning—a trillion-dollar valuation in the public market is not an automatically realized promise but requires sustained commercialization capability to support. Even though SpaceX rebounded to $170.86 on July 1, its stock price remains far below its peak, and this fact alone is enough to illustrate the point. For core AI industry chain players like Microsoft and Nvidia, this means the return cycle on AI capital expenditure may be reassessed; for the crypto market, it further confirms that global risk assets are undergoing a systemic valuation repricing. Regardless of when and at what valuation OpenAI ultimately goes public, this delay itself has already changed the market's expectation framework for the rhythm of AI capitalization.

FAQ

Q1: Why is OpenAI considering delaying its IPO?

OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO from 2026 to 2027, primarily because CEO Sam Altman insists on a $1 trillion valuation target and refuses to accept a lower price for listing. The direct trigger was the sharp decline in SpaceX's stock price from its peak of $225 after its IPO, combined with ongoing volatility in tech stocks, cooling of the AI sector, and OpenAI's own profitability pressures (net loss of about $38.5 billion in 2025), leading management to reassess the listing timing.

Q2: What are the impacts of OpenAI's IPO delay on Microsoft and Nvidia?

Microsoft shares fell about 18% cumulatively in June 2026, with market capitalization shrinking by more than $570 billion, its worst monthly performance since 2000. As of the close on July 1, Microsoft closed at $373.02. As one of OpenAI's largest strategic investors, the IPO delay means Microsoft's stake lacks a public market pricing anchor. Nvidia closed at $200.09 on July 1; its valuation is highly dependent on sustained expansion of AI capital expenditure—a delay in OpenAI's financing plans could mean a slowdown in computing procurement.

Q3: How did SpaceX's IPO performance influence OpenAI's decision?

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, raising over $85 billion, with a first-day valuation of $1.77 trillion. The stock price briefly surged to $225 but quickly fell back. As of the close on July 1 Beijing time, SpaceX closed at $170.86. This price movement became a core cautionary case for OpenAI's advisory team—if SpaceX couldn't hold a trillion-dollar valuation, the difficulty for OpenAI to achieve a similar valuation in the public market is understandable.

Q4: What does OpenAI's IPO delay mean for the crypto market?

On July 1, 2026, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to $58,290, and Ethereum lost the $1,600 level. In June, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $4.06 billion, a record high. The signal of "AI capitalization falling short of expectations" released by OpenAI's IPO delay resonates with the crypto market's own tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite, collectively pointing to a systemic valuation repricing of global risk assets.

Q5: What is the current status of OpenAI's competitors?

Anthropic already submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq listing in October 2026. In May 2026, Anthropic completed a $65 billion Series H funding round, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. Its annualized revenue has exceeded $47 billion. In the capital market competition, Anthropic has taken the lead.