July 1 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

July: Wishing everyone good luck with 'seven' expectations, may everything go smoothly!

🤯Fundamental News:

On June 29, BTC rebounded slightly to around $59,800 (daily +0.6%), but the overall market remains cautious in a critical week. Derivatives data and chart patterns show continued downside risk.

Main pressure comes from:
The previous PCE inflation data exceeded expectations, triggering large-scale liquidations (previously over $1 billion in long liquidations in a single day).

Geopolitical tensions (Middle East-related factors) and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to impact risky assets.

No major positive catalysts; events such as Trump's executive orders did not directly benefit the crypto market.

The Fear and Greed Index is at 14, in the 'Extreme Fear' region, with depressed market sentiment.

Summary: Fundamental news is neutral to bearish, lacking strong drivers, short-term more influenced by macro and fund flows.

🤯Fund Flow:

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are severe: June becomes one of the worst months on record, with net outflows exceeding $4 billion (some data reaching $4B+), weekly outflows of $1.67B–$1.79B, and 30-day cumulative over $6B. Major products such as BlackRock's IBIT saw large redemptions, with institutions continuously withdrawing funds. Although there was a small positive inflow on June 29 (about +$69.5 million) providing temporary relief, the overall trend is still substantial net outflows, which is the core reason for price pressure.

Perpetual contract funding rate: Coinglass data shows that the average BTC funding rate remains around +0.0017% to +0.0022% (low positive), with longs paying a slight fee to shorts, but the value is not high, indicating limited leverage crowding and no extreme bullish or bearish signals. Recently, there have been hundreds of millions to over one billion dollars in long liquidations.

Fund Flow Summary: ETF institutional selling pressure dominates (bearish), but derivative leverage is not extreme, providing some buffer for potential bottom formation.

🤯Technical Analysis:

The current market is still mainly consolidating, with a chance of bottom divergence on the daily chart. At this position, I personally believe there is still a chance of a rebound. In the short term, watch the resistance above at 60000.
In summary, there will be a rebound opportunity within the day, with resistance above at 60000-64800.