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CICC: Current gold may have overpriced rate hike expectations.

MeNews
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ME News report: On July 1 (UTC+8), a latest research report from CICC pointed out that gold may already be overpricing rate-hike expectations. A Fed rate hike is still not the baseline scenario. The gold market may have already over-discounted rate-hike expectations, leaving room for retracement within the year. CICC’s macro team believes that pressure from employment and consumption, as well as the growing expansion of financing demand from the US AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to turn meaningfully more hawkish; monetary policy may become “hawkish in name but dovish in practice.” Based on a model of interest-rate expectations implied by gold prices, the current gold price of around $4,000 per ounce has already fully priced in 3–4 rate hikes, higher than what is implied in the interest-rate futures market. Going forward, as further declines in oil prices are reflected in US short-term inflation data, the gold market’s pricing of rate-hike expectations may be adjusted, at which time the short-term funds in the futures market may have opportunities for covering. (Source: Jin10)
GLDX-1.08%
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