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7.1 Morning
On the daily timeframe, I have been using a fixed range trading strategy this past week, and the overall rhythm has been basically correct. However, the consolidation range this week is likely to be broken.
5.8 is the current key level. Once it effectively breaks down, the first support below is directly at 5.4. This level was the bottom of a half-year flag pattern from the year before last, and the support is extremely strong.
Combined with the overall neutral expectation for non-farm payrolls and the strengthening bias of the US dollar, the market's bullish confidence is clearly insufficient. Each counter-trend rally has very limited room, with prices quickly pulling back after hitting highs. The market is currently in the mid-to-late stage of a bear market, and the large-scale bearish trend has not changed. The medium-term pullback target I have been emphasizing remains unchanged. This round of deep adjustment will last at least until November, with the ultimate target at 4.5.
Suggestions
BTC: Short at 5.9-5.97, target 5.75-5.70
ETH: Short at 1580-1590, target 1540-1510.