Cryptocurrency News Daily | July 1, 2026

1🔴 Major Strategic Shift for Strategy (MSTR) — From 'Buy and Hold Forever' to 'Sell and Allocate'

Impact Rating: Extremely High (Market Structural Change)

The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy (MSTR), announced it is abandoning the old rule of "long-term buy and hold, never sell" promoted by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, shifting to an active capital management model:

• Approved to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to replenish cash reserves and secure shareholder dividend payments
• STRC preferred stock annualized dividend rate raised to 12%, new framework locks in $2.55 billion cash reserve
• Simultaneously launches $1 billion common stock buyback program
• BTC price has already fallen below Strategy's average purchase price for all holdings (below $60k)
• Market concern: BTC's largest incremental buyer may stop large-scale purchases in the future, or even become a seller
• MSTR fell nearly 10% intraday, almost erasing all gains from the previous trading day
• Miller Tabak Chief Strategist notes BTC technicals continue to weaken, with the head-and-shoulders neckline at $80k never convincingly reclaimed

Trading Implications: Strategy shifting from "marginal buyer" to "marginal seller" is a structural market turning point. If the $59k support level is lost, quantitative and trend-following capital may accelerate selling.

2 🔴 Fed’s Hammack Comments — AI Investment Boom Pushes Inflation Higher, Could Lead to Rate Hikes

Impact Rating: Extremely High (Macro Policy Direction)

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (with FOMC voting rights this year) publicly stated:

• AI infrastructure's "near-insatiable demand" is pushing inflation higher, with large cloud computing companies "willing to pay almost any price for inputs"
• "Current inflation is still too high and has persisted for five years. If inflation persists, higher rates may be needed to bring it back to target"
• Contrasts sharply with Fed Chair Warsh’s view that AI boosting productivity will lower inflation
• June FOMC already hinted at the possibility of a 25bp rate hike this year
• New York Fed President Williams believes the current policy stance is already effective in pushing inflation back to 2%, with no need for a rate hike or rate cut in the near term

Trading Implications: Hammack’s remarks reinforce hawkish expectations, pressuring high-beta risk assets like crypto. Watch the July 29 FOMC meeting.

3 🔴 Wall Street Shifts to Rate Hike Expectations — From 'No Rate Cuts' to 'Rate Hikes'

Impact Rating: High (Divergence in Institutional Consensus)

Several major Wall Street banks have raised their Fed rate hike expectations for the year:

• Deutsche Bank: Shifts from holding steady to predicting 25bp hikes in September and December, warning of the risk of earlier action in July
• Bank of America: Predicts 25bp hikes in September, October, and December (3 times this year)
• BNP Paribas, Macquarie: Also raise rate hike expectations
• May PCE year-over-year 4.1% (up 0.3 percentage points from April), core PCE 3.4%
• Q1 2026 GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter 2.1% (up 0.5 percentage points from prior 1.6%)
• Divergence: Citi still insists on rate cuts; Reuters poll shows over 70% of economists expect the rate to stay at 3.50%-3.75% by year-end
• Progress on US-Iran peace framework and falling oil prices shift market narrative from "geopolitical risk" to "US economy leading recovery"

Trading Implications: The tug-of-war between rate hike and rate cut expectations will dominate Q3 market rhythm. Crypto assets will continue to trade as rate-sensitive risk assets.

4 🟠 Bitcoin ETF Record Outflows — From Marginal Buying to Marginal Supply

Impact Rating: High (Core Liquidity Indicator)

US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive outflows:

• June US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows of $4.06 billion, a record
• Cumulative net outflows this year exceed $5.1 billion, reversing the trend of large-scale inflows since launch in early 2024
• June 26 single-day net outflow of $505.9 million, with IBIT single-product outflow of $440.7 million
• IBIT alone had outflows of over $3 billion in June, potentially the largest single-month outflow since the fund's inception
• End of May, global crypto ETPs saw three-week cumulative outflows of over $4.21 billion
• Retail investors shift from "buying the dip" to a wait-and-see stance

Trading Implications: ETFs have shifted from marginal buyers to a source of marginal supply, which is the core contradiction of this selloff, not market sentiment. Watch for a turning point in ETF flows in early July.

5 🟠 USD/JPY Hits 40-Year High — Impacts Crypto Funding Channels

Impact Rating: High (Macro Liquidity Transmission)

• JPY/USD falls to 162.00, USD at 40-year high
• US-Japan 10-year government bond yield spread narrows significantly
• After the previous four rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, BTC saw 25%-30% volatility adjustments each time
• After the nonfarm payroll data beat, the crypto market triggered forced liquidations of approximately $1.5-$1.6 billion, with long liquidation volume reaching $1.21 billion
• BTC under dual pressure from a strong USD and weak spot ETF demand, plus US-Japan carry trade pressure

Trading Implications: The US-Japan carry trade is one of the important funding channels for the crypto market. Continued yen weakness means persistent liquidity withdrawal pressure from this channel.

6 🟠 Ethereum Down 36% YTD, Tests $1,500 Key Support

Impact Rating: High (ETH Ecosystem Signal)

• ETH price around $1,557, down 36.58% year-to-date
• Has broken below two support levels at $1,633 and $1,583, currently testing the $1,500 threshold
• RSI 37.55 in oversold territory; transaction fees at lowest level since May 2020
• June ETH spot ETF net outflows of $30.04 million
• Divergence signals: SharpLink bucked the trend and significantly increased its ETH holdings (total holdings 886,725 ETH); Ethereum Foundation cut 20% of staff, reduced budget by 40%, launched a "trillion-dollar security" plan
• DeFi total value locked approximately $36 billion (peak $1.05 trillion); mid-year DeFi protocol hacks caused losses of over $840 million
• If $1,500 holds, could bounce to $1,600-$1,700 range; if broken, will drop to around $1,300

Trading Implications: ETH underperformed BTC significantly, with the core contradiction being persistent ETF outflows rather than market sentiment. $1,500 is the key watershed for July's trend.

7🟡 UK Crypto Regulation Officially Launched — Game Begins for $4 Trillion Market

Impact Rating: Medium-High (Compliance Infrastructure)

On June 30, 2026, the UK FCA released its final policy statement:

• Covers stablecoin issuance, regulated crypto asset activities, and oversight of market abuse related to crypto assets
• Final regulatory rules apply to all crypto asset institutions approved to operate under the Financial Services and Markets Act on or after October 25, 2027
• Global crypto asset market size surpassed $4 trillion for the first time in 2025
• Of 117 jurisdictions, 85 have passed or are advancing "Travel Rule" legislation
• Controversy: Optimists believe the UK can leverage its common law system to form a non-EU compliance channel; cautious view holds that it is only a basic condition without unique competitive advantage

Trading Implications: UK regulation provides a legal basis for compliant institutions to enter, but competition with the EU's MiCA is not yet clear. Watch for institutions obtaining licenses before October 2027.

8 🟡 Russia Legalizes Bitcoin for Foreign Trade — Effective Today

Impact Rating: Medium (Sovereign Adoption Signal)

• As of July 1, 2026, Russia officially allows BTC and stablecoins for cross-border trade payment settlement
• Based on a two-year pilot program, last year's pilot processed approximately $11 billion in crypto-facilitated trade
• Individuals and businesses can legally purchase cryptocurrencies from July, but only through licensed platforms for trading
• Cryptocurrency is prohibited as a payment tool within Russia, but an exception allows use in foreign trade
• Aimed at creating channels to bypass economic sanctions from the US and Europe

Trading Implications: Sovereign states incorporating BTC into trade settlement is a long-term positive signal, but short-term price impact is limited. Watch for follow-up from other sanctioned countries.

9🟡 Jefferies Warns Crypto Volatility Not Over — Probability of Clear Act Passing Declines

Impact Rating: Medium (Institutional Assessment and Legislative Pace)

• BTC down 3.72%, ETH down 4.89%, XRP down 7.75%, AVAX down 9.26%, ADA down 14.03%
• This decline driven by Fed policy tightening, not proactive de-risking by the crypto industry
• 2-year US Treasury yield up about 16 basis points, USD at highest since 2026
• Core crypto regulation bill, the Clear Act, currently has declining probability of passage
• Senate review window before the August recess is limited; if missed, may be postponed to next year
• Passage of the bill would boost institutional crypto adoption; delay prolongs regulatory uncertainty

Trading Implications: The legislative pace of the Clear Act directly ties crypto assets to risk capital flows. If legislation continues to delay combined with macro tightening, the bearish dominance pattern will persist.

10🟡 Middle East Geopolitical Risk Escalates — Israel Large-Scale Raid, US-Iran Talks Uncertain

Impact Rating: Medium (Safe-Haven Sentiment Transmission)

• Israeli forces launched large-scale raids in multiple towns in the West Bank on June 30
• Netanyahu orders: take military action immediately if security threats are detected
• Iran's foreign ministry denies any planned meetings with the US at any level in the coming days; prospects for US-Iran Doha talks uncertain
• Brent crude oil at $94.38/barrel
• In 24 hours, 82,520 traders were liquidated, involving $269.92 million
• BTC falls to around $58,000; leveraged traders added approximately $1.16 billion long liquidation risk exposure near $57,800
• If these positions are fully cleared, market makers may target a short squeeze cluster of $4.14 billion near $62,000

Trading Implications: Geopolitical risk boosts safe-haven sentiment, combined with month-end rebalancing and concentrated options expiry, short-term volatility increases. After the July holiday period with lower volume, the trend may become clearer.

Key Support / Resistance Quick Look

| Asset | Current Price | Key Support | Key Resistance | Trend | | ---- | ------------- | ------------------ | ------------------ | -------------------- | | BTC | ~58,000 | 57,800 / 59,000 | 62,000 / 80,000 | Bearish dominant, technicals weakening | | ETH | ~1,557 | 1,500 | 1,600-1,700 | Bearish dominant, oversold zone |

Key Timeline for July

• July 29: Fed FOMC meeting
• Before August recess: Senate review window for Clear Act
• Early July: Observation period for ETF flow turning point
• October 25, 2027: UK FCA crypto regulation rules fully apply