Track real-time hotspots in the crypto space and seize the best trading opportunities! Today is Wednesday, July 1, 2026, and I'm Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀ Loyal fans check in 👍 Like for big profits 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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💎 Macro Tone Setting: From "When to Cut Rates" to "Whether to Hike," Hawkish Repricing Dominates the July Start 💎

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On the first trading day of July, the crypto market continues its weak consolidation pattern. Overnight, Bitcoin closed around 58,500, while Ethereum closed near 1,560. The total crypto market cap remains at approximately $2 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance exceeding 57%, as funds continue to concentrate into the top asset.

The macro landscape is the core variable currently suppressing the market. After the June FOMC meeting, the market's logic has fundamentally shifted—investors are no longer discussing "when will rates be cut" but are beginning to assess whether the Fed will restart rate hikes. The White House has signaled respect for the independence of Walsh's policies, reducing expectations that political forces could prevent rate hikes. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4.40%, while the 2-year yield stands at 4.127%.

On the regulatory front, July 1 marks the official end of the transitional period for the EU's MiCA crypto asset market regulation. USDT has been expelled from the European market, leaving USDC as the sole compliant stablecoin in the EU. Short-term compliance-driven sell-offs may exert some selling pressure, but in the long term, a clear regulatory framework is positive for the industry.

For the crypto market, BTC and ETH are essentially high-beta assets tied to global liquidity and risk appetite. A stronger US dollar, rising real interest rates, and slowing ETF inflows all suppress valuations. In the first half of July, caution is warranted around the potential second dip risk following the CPI data release on July 14.

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💎 Bitcoin: Down ~19% in June, Facing a Directional Decision in July 💎

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Bitcoin fell approximately 18.5% in June, its weakest monthly performance since mid-2022. The current price is oscillating around $58,500, near the recent low zone. Technically, the price has touched the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, making this area a key short-term support level. The RSI indicator is forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that while the overall structure is bullish, there are short-term bearish reversal signals.

The first resistance above is at $62,450 (20-day EMA). If sustained above, it could target $64,000-$64,100, with the main supply zone at $66,600-$67,600. Key support below is at $58,000; if lost, a further test of the $52,000-$55,000 region is possible.

On the ETF front, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $102 million yesterday, but the pace has slowed significantly compared to last week. Slowing inflows suggest weakening institutional buying support.

In terms of operations, currently in a key support area, aggressive traders could open a small long position near $58,000-$58,500, with a stop loss below $57,500 and a target of $60,000-$60,800. Conservative traders should wait for the price to firmly break above $60,000 with volume before considering long positions. If the price drops below $57,500 with volume, it is crucial to exit decisively, with the next support zone at $55,000-$56,000.

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💎 Ethereum: Dropped to Early 2021 Levels, Long-Term Holders in Loss 💎

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Ethereum has fallen back to price levels seen in early 2021, putting many long-term holders who bought over the past five years into loss. ETH has declined for three consecutive quarters, a first in its history.

Technically, after failing to hold above $2,500, ETH has continued to fall and is now in the low range of $1,550-$1,580. The AI model predicts an average ETH price of about $1,780 for July 1, with key support at $1,650-$1,680 and resistance at $1,750-$1,800—but the current price is already below these support levels, indicating severe short-term oversold conditions.

Key resistance above is at $1,620-$1,650; a breakout with volume could target the $1,750-$1,800 region. Key support below is at $1,500-$1,520; if lost, a further test of $1,400-$1,450 is possible. Yesterday, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $31.8 million, indicating continued institutional capital inflow.

For altcoins, the altcoin season index today reads 22. Altcoins are generally weak, and due to low liquidity, their downside may exceed that of BTC. Major projects have a total unlock size of approximately $1.9 billion in July, which will increase market liquidity but also raise volatility risks.

In terms of operations, aggressive traders could open a small long position near $1,550, with a stop loss below $1,500 and a target of $1,620-$1,650. Conservative traders should wait for the price to stabilize or for a bottoming signal with volume before positioning. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, making long ETH less attractive than long BTC for now.

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💎 July Core Variables: CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls to Determine Direction 💎

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The July 2 nonfarm payrolls data will directly test the resilience of the US labor market; the July 14 CPI data will determine whether inflation is truly returning to target. If CPI continues to run hot, long-end Treasury yields and the dollar could rise in tandem, putting renewed pressure on the crypto market. Only if inflation data weakens, oil prices continue to fall, or the Fed downplays the possibility of consecutive rate hikes at its July 29 meeting, can the market form a more reliable rebound.

What truly determines the direction of Q3 is not whether the Fed hikes in July, but whether the market can confirm that this round of inflation is merely an energy shock, rather than a more persistent second-wave inflation.

The baseline scenario for July: US stocks will see broad consolidation with accelerated sector rotation; BTC will be relatively resilient, while ETH and altcoins will continue to underperform. In terms of operations, until the macro direction becomes clear, strictly control positions—total exposure should not exceed 50%, and each stop-loss should be strictly set within 2%. Patiently wait for directional cues after the CPI and FOMC meetings.

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