Chase too many “sh*tcoins,” and you’ll find that the ways blockchain games crash are basically the same.

In the early stage, output is cranked up to the max—everyone farms like crazy, and the token price still looks okay. But no one manages consumption. Inflation builds up, the pool gets spread thinner and thinner, and in the end, it’s the one who finishes last who ends up stuck holding the bag. To put it bluntly, if the economic model only has a faucet and no drain, it will drown eventually.

Now rate-cut expectations swing back and forth. Sometimes the dollar and risk assets rise and fall together, and the old macro hedging logic doesn’t quite work the way it used to. The same goes for blockchain game pools—old experience isn’t necessarily reliable.

As for me, I don’t chase a new game’s launch, and I don’t overbet on governance tokens either. I’ll first see whether the consumption side can form a closed loop, and then decide whether to get involved. That’s it for now.