Option buyers and sellers, at the end of the day, are just eating time value from both sides.



Buyers fear time decay, sellers fear black swans. Recently, interest rate cut expectations have been swinging back and forth, the dollar index is moving in sync with risk assets, on-chain capital is clearly hesitating, and implied volatility of options is being suppressed somewhat awkwardly — in this environment, acting as a seller to collect premiums seems stable on the surface, but if macro conditions suddenly turn sour, the small premium isn’t enough to cover the hole.

I tested it with a small position, just two orders, with very short expiration dates, within two weeks, and a very small amount. If I lose, it’s tuition; if I win, it’s a cup of coffee. Anyway, in this current environment, the rate of time decay might not keep up with the speed of news shifts, so I’ll just watch for now and not chase.
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