Jefferies warns: legislative uncertainty of the CLARITY Act could trigger crypto market volatility.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, although the US "Clarity Act" has passed a bipartisan vote of 15:9 in the Senate Banking Committee, the subsequent legislative process still faces significant resistance, and political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundaries of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and is regarded as the core legislative framework for the US crypto market structure. Jefferies noted that if it passes smoothly, it will significantly boost institutional participation, while delays will prolong regulatory uncertainty.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, down sharply from 70% in mid-May, mainly due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts say that Congress has only about 20 legislative days left before the August recess, and needs to complete processes such as reconciling the House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submitting to the President for signing. If progress is not made before the recess, it could be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to election cycle changes.

Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, and benefit the development of markets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); but if delayed, it could dampen institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.

In addition, the market expects that policy uncertainty will continue to affect the stock performance of crypto-related listed companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulation gradually becomes clearer, increased competition among stablecoins in the future could still become a long-term pressure source for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)