Wintermute: The crypto market has entered the late stage of a bear market, but the true bottom may still not have arrived.

BlockBeats news, June 30, Wintermute released its latest market report, saying that Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000 and Ethereum has weakened in sync, indicating that the crypto market has entered the late stage of a bear market, but the true cycle bottom may not have appeared yet.

The report noted that the recent cooldown in AI trading has become the main thread across global markets. The Nasdaq has fallen for five straight trading days, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7% in a single day, funds have started rotating from large-cap tech stocks to small-cap stocks and U.S. Treasuries, and crypto assets have been under pressure in step with tech stocks. At the same time, U.S. May PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long period, and a stronger U.S. dollar has further weighed on the performance of risk assets.

Wintermute believes that market sentiment has entered an extreme fear range: the Fear and Greed Index remains between 18 and 24. About half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is already in a floating loss state, and both are close to the characteristics of historical bear market bottoms. However, the report pointed out that what is truly lacking at this stage is a rebound in fund inflows. Spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows of about $1.8 billion, and stablecoins and other liquidity indicators have also not shown improvement yet.

Regarding Strategy’s latest capital framework, Wintermute said that the company’s increase in STRC dividends, the initiation of share repurchases, and the first formal authorization to sell up to approximately $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin can help reduce capital-structure risk, which has received a positive response from the market. However, the report believes that the Bitcoin reserve company’s decision to retain the right to sell BTC to pay dividends also means that the market’s long-standing “permanent bid” is gradually turning into a “conditional bid.”

Wintermute expects that, due to historical seasonality, the crypto market will most likely not complete its bottoming process during the summer; instead, the true bottom is more likely to arrive around September to October. The subsequent trend will still depend on the macro environment, whether the AI sector cools further, and whether funds return to the crypto market.