The group has been muted for three days, and I suddenly feel a bit out of sorts.

Before, as soon as it pinged, I’d grab my phone to see who was shouting, “Smart money is moving.” But whenever I clicked in, it was always “suspected to be a certain exchange’s wallet” or “possibly market maker aggregation.” Anyway, now I feel that with address clustering—no matter how nicely the labels are done, no matter how pretty the fund flow diagrams look—when it comes to attribution, it always ends up as “suspected”: suspected smart money, suspected institutions, suspected insider front-running, suspected related-party trading, suspected my own blind guesses.

To put it bluntly: on-chain data can tell you where the money went, but it can’t tell you why it went there. I’ve seen some accounts turn the movement of exchanges’ cold and hot wallets into little arrows beside the candlestick chart, with copy like “bottom-fishing signal.” The comments underneath are all just “followed.” Followed what? They might be doing internal rebalancing, or it might be user deposits and withdrawals, or maybe… forget it. Let’s leave it at that for now.

I won’t change my avatar yet—I'll wait until I truly understand.