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The GDP formula in macroeconomics: GDP = C + I + G + NX
When I was in school, the macroeconomics teacher always used this formula to tell us that GDP can be driven by consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.
Online—and even in research reports by domestic brokerages—there’s a popular view: developed countries (especially the United States) have a higher share of consumption in GDP, while China’s GDP has a lower share of consumption; therefore, China should transition to a consumption-driven economy in the future.
But I have a different view: the GDP formula is only a mathematical smokescreen and does not reflect the essence of macroeconomics.
GDP cannot be driven by consumption.
The essence of consumption is that people buy things after earning wages. People earn wages because companies are profitable. Companies are profitable because they produce good things efficiently and sell them to people at home and abroad. Companies can produce good things efficiently because technology advances and production improves. Technology advances and production improves because capital expenditures are made—that is, because investment occurs.
The source of all economic growth is investment (capital formation); consumption is merely a byproduct after investment succeeds. The first driving force is effective investment—nothing else—and the AI boom driven by CapEx proves this.
Therefore, in response to deflation and weak consumption, it is meaningless to issue consumption vouchers. The key is not consumption, but investment—restoring companies’ balance sheets, and restoring companies’ profits.
In economic theory, this view should belong to the Austrian School.