Crashed! The Bitcoin “treasury stocks” that people bought back then with their eyes closed have now turned into a meat grinder for retail investors?

Bro, let me be straight with you. If you hold stocks in companies like Strategy or Metaplanet, you need to read today's content word for word.

Over the past two years, whenever these companies announced "I'm going to buy $BTC," their stock prices shot up like crazy. But now, this strategy has completely failed. The market no longer cares how many coins they buy; instead, it's focused on how much your equity they dilute to buy those coins.

This is a brutal shift from "hoarding assets" to "accounting for equity."

Let me show you some data to feel the bone-chilling cold. The largest $BTC holder in Asia is Metaplanet, holding 40,177 $BTC, worth about $2.4 billion. But here's the kicker: this company's market cap is actually cheaper than the $BTC it holds.

The key metric to measure this is called "Modified Net Asset Value," or mNAV. When this number is less than 1, it means the company itself is worth less than the coins in its wallet. Metaplanet's mNAV is currently only 0.9x. In plain terms, if you spend 10k yuan to buy its stock, you're getting 9,000 yuan worth of $BTC, and the remaining 1,000 yuan is the IQ tax you pay to management.

Its stock price has fallen 47% this year, and its quarterly Bitcoin yield turned negative, at -0.4%.

Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich panicked and publicly admitted: "As long as mNAV falls below 1, we will consider buying back shares." Translated, that means: I'm out of options, bro, I can only save myself.

You might say, what about the leader Strategy? It should be fine since it has a large market cap. Don't rush—let's look at the data.

As of June 21, Strategy held 847,363 $BTC, accounting for over 60% of all publicly listed companies' holdings. But this is just an accounting number game. The pie that truly belongs to common shareholders has been chopped into pieces. The company has over $13.5 billion in preferred stock hanging over it. When it comes to distributing money or coins, these preferred shares have higher priority—they need to be fed first.

This year, Strategy bought about 174.3k $BTC, and 55% of the money came from issuing preferred stock (STRC). But recently, STRC's price has fallen to historic lows, blocking funding channels. What to do? CEO Michael Saylor came up with a "clever move"—directly diluting you common shareholders.

On June 22, Strategy sold $335.5 million in common stock. Of that, $300 million was directly stacked as cash reserves, and only 520 $BTC were bought. Why? Because they need to keep that money to pay dividends to preferred shareholders.

Now look at that "Bitcoin Yield" that Saylor keeps bragging about. A month ago it was 13%, now it has fallen to 11.8%. The total number of shares has ballooned to 388.6 million.

You think this is just an isolated case? Over in Europe, the drama is even bigger.

Capital B, listed in France, holds only 3,139 $BTC (worth $200 million), but has been approved for a financing quota of up to $120 billion. That's $120 billion, you read that right. These executives are painting a picture: hold 15k $BTC by 2027, and a long-term goal of holding 1% of the world's $BTC.

Ask yourself: with this 1000x leverage, if $BTC doesn't rise, who's going to foot the bill?

Another Swedish company, BTC AB, is more straightforward. They launched a fundraising plan to issue up to 195k Class A preferred shares, paying a fixed 10% annual interest, settled monthly. But they only hold 171 $BTC as underlying collateral. Few people are willing to buy this blatant usury anymore; the subscription rate is only 27%.

Why has the market suddenly changed its tune? The core reason is just one: Bitcoin spot ETFs have arrived.

Before, if you wanted indirect exposure to $BTC, you had to buy these companies' stocks, so they commanded a premium and scarcity. Now? You open your trading app, buy an ETF with one click, zero management fees, better liquidity than these stocks, and zero equity dilution risk.

So tell me, why should you still support these management teams that collect high salaries and keep diluting your shares?

So the market logic has changed. Investors have started "doing the math." They will deduct all your equity incentives, preferred dividends, and debt interest, and calculate how much $BTC actually ends up in the hands of common shareholders.

Once mNAV falls below 1, it means the company is trapped in a "capital constraint cycle." Shareholders are unwilling to pay a premium, so the company cannot use share issuance to earn spreads and buy coins; unable to buy coins, it cannot increase the $BTC per share; stock price doesn't rise, investors become even more unwilling to buy. A dead end.

Even more terrifying is that once this funding loop is broken, these companies still have huge preferred dividends and debt interest to pay. What can they do?

The answer is brutal. Either ignore the discount and continue to dilute crazily, cutting up the old shareholders' meat for new investors; or lend out the little $BTC they have to earn interest, turning from a "coin-hoarding company" into a "P2P usury company"; the worst outcome is to simply sell the $BTC to repay debts.

So, do you get it? The only criterion for companies to survive the next phase is: after this round of financing, as a common shareholder, do you have more or less $BTC in your hands?

The market has finally started to settle the score with these "financial magicians." Companies that only know how to spend money buying coins and don't understand shareholder returns will eventually be eliminated. For you, after reading this article, why not go back and look at the crypto stocks you hold, and calculate whether this deal is really worthwhile.

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