Pre Market Thoughts 30 Jun 26

Plenty of action before the quarterly rebalance in NY trading yesterday.
Broadly we saw memory pooling and compute leading the market - tickers like $ALAB and $NBIS were extremely strong. In my notes before, I was banging the drum that memory pooling and compute will be leading the next rally. $SHAZ also released the 13G yesterday after market like what i talked about last week.
Again, i would like to tell people that I am not a fortune teller. I have gotten things wrong before and will continue to get things wrong. What truly matters is how much you make when you are right and how little you lose when you are wrong,
Of course, having a higher win rate helps. It is also good when the market validates your thesis quickly.
In order to really appreciate and contextualise the moves in Asia today, we need to unpack the moves in NY session to gain that trading color. While the indexes told a relatively sanguine story, SPX was up 1.2%, this WAS not a peaceful day. In my note yesterday, i said for volatility to expand as we go into the end of quarter rebalancing. The index broadly traded up before puking shortly after. The move in single names was even more vicious with $NBIS trading at 235 and $SNDK back to even last week's lows. This was then quickly bought up into the session. Tickers like $ALAB and $NBIS then started differentiating themselves even within their thematic baskets.
In Asia session, we had the KOSPI and NKY up about 1%. I am also at this point calling for the rally in Korea to broaden out beyond SK Hynix and Samsung. The small caps in korea will benefit greatly. However this is an illiquid market so i will not be participating in this.
Going into July, $SKHYNIX is also likely to trade firm on its ADR listing. More details are required such as convertibility but broadly, this will increase access.
In my last few notes, i been banging the drum that we have the best technical set up going into July. Given that we are on the cusp of July, let me break down what i see.
First off, last week we saw massive selling in Tech, according to GS Prime Book data - we had the largest net selling in global equities in 3 months. US equities were sold a second straight week - at the fastest pace since liberation day! (wow im surprised) - Semis were at the center of it with MORE than HALF of the US tech outflows coming from semis. This flow reset is amazing for positioning because again - like i said in my notes before $MU earnings - instis were derisking into the move. Given that earnings are still GOOD and growing, instis will need to rerisk into the market. Especially after the July rebalancing. At this point, if the market performs, we will also have instis trying to front run each other in the rerisking move - setting up for an explosive rip up.
Next - looking at market fear, we have the Put Call ratio close to the highs of Iran and Liberation day. A lot of protection has been bought and this should cushion moves to the downside. Other sentiment indicators like the Greed fear index...has it at extreme fear?
Going into today, we have the market primed for the end of quarter rebalancing with a massive known equity sale position. IF markets have pre hedged for this to a large extent, then the bids might start from today instead of the early july period.
Next, I will be releasing an article to talk about $SHAZ. This deserves a note on itself. Especially with people asking how did i predict the 13G drop yesterday.
Come chat in the tele channel if you are bored~
As always, good luck!