On June 29, the U.S. Supreme Court did something incredibly schizophrenic—

The same group of justices, on the same day, issued two completely opposite rulings.

First: 5 to 4, blocking Trump from firing Federal Reserve Board member Cook.

For the first time in the Fed's 111-year history, a president tried to remove a Fed board member, and was stopped by the court.

On the other side: 6 to 3, overturning a 1935 precedent that had stood for 91 years, ruling that the president can freely dismiss officials from independent agencies like the Federal Trade Commission.

Get it?

The Supreme Court made an exception for the Fed, but sentenced all other independent agencies to death.

The Fed is safe for now.

Fed independence has shifted from "presumed" to "needing court protection."

No one dared to touch the Fed before. Now someone has, and nearly succeeded.

Next time, how will the market price this "political risk premium"?

Beijing time July 2 (Thursday) 20:30, the June non-farm payroll data will be released.

The market expects 113k new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

If the data exceeds expectations—the probability of a rate hike will skyrocket further.

Fed funds futures show the probability of a rate hike by December 2026 has already exceeded 80%, with a 0% probability of a rate cut.

Rate hike + shaken Fed independence = ?

Equals a nightmare for risk assets.

Don't forget, today is also the last day of Q2.

Institutions are "window dressing"—selling assets that lost money over the past three months to make the books look better.

Gold fell from 5,595 to below 4,000. Bitcoin fell from 126k to around 60k.

End-of-quarter rebalancing + non-farm countdown + Fed independence suspense—

These three bombs are detonating in the same week.

There is also a hidden bomb: the yen.

The dollar-yen broke through 162 today, hitting a 40-year high.

The risk of yen carry trade unwinding is like a sleeping lion.

Once it wakes up, global liquidity will be drained instantly.

And when liquidity dries up, what gets dumped first?

The altcoins in your hands.

What does the market hate most? Uncertainty.

Will the Fed be controlled by the president? No one knows. Will the non-farm data be good? No one knows. Will the yen collapse? Also no one knows—the dollar-yen just broke through 162, hitting a 40-year high. The risk of yen carry trade unwinding is building up #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Saylor暗示增持BTC $BTC $ETH $XAUT