From Asset Trading to Event Trading: How Gate is Rewriting the Rules of CEX Competition Through Polymarket?

In March 2026, Gate officially integrated with Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, becoming the first centralized exchange to integrate the platform. This move added a prediction market entry point within the Gate App, allowing users to directly participate in yes/no outcome prediction trading of trending events in areas such as sports, finance, and crypto.

At first glance, this is an expansion of product functionality. But from the perspective of industry structure, Gate’s move may be changing the underlying logic of CEX competition—from “a venue for trading assets” to “a hub for trading information.”

Prediction Market: A Bursting, Trillion-Dollar Track

Before discussing changes in the landscape, it is necessary to understand the scale of the prediction market track itself.

According to data from blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, the global prediction market’s monthly trading volume has exceeded $200 billion, surging from roughly $12 billion at the start of 2025 to more than $200 billion in January 2026. Dune Analytics data shows that in March 2026, the number of monthly users in prediction markets grew 118% year over year to 865,411, and the nominal trading volume was close to $23.89 billion.

From cumulative data, as of the end of February 2026, the global prediction markets’ cumulative nominal settled volume had reached $127.5 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, global prediction market trading volume jumped to about $75 billion. Since entering 2026, the nominal trading volume of prediction markets has exceeded $20 billion for four consecutive months, with April’s single-month nominal trading volume nearing a record high of $30 billion.

More notably, traditional financial giants have moved in. On March 27, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket. The continuous re-funding by traditional financial institutions indicates that prediction markets are moving from a crypto-native “edge track” to the “main battlefield” of mainstream finance.

Gate’s Breakthrough: Connecting CEX and Prediction Markets’ “Last Mile”

There is no doubt about the growth potential of prediction markets, but their native onboarding barriers have long constrained the breakout of user scale. In Polymarket’s native environment, users need to register separately, set up a Web3 wallet, cross-chain transfer USDC (Polygon network), and pay Gas fees. For the majority of CEX users, this process means a large amount of drop-off.

Gate’s integration precisely addresses this pain point. More than 54 million Gate registered users can now use USDT directly from their exchange spot accounts to participate in prediction trading, without any additional Gas fees. The participation threshold has been lowered to the same level as spot trading.

On the product design level, Gate introduced a dual-architecture of “prediction mode + trading mode.” Prediction mode uses intuitive probabilities and odds to help beginners get started quickly; trading mode provides an order book, candlestick charts (K-lines), market depth, and limit/market orders to meet the strategy needs of professional traders. After event settlement, winning profits are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to the spot account, eliminating the on-chain settlement waiting period and the risk of slippage.

In terms of participation paths, Gate adopts a dual-track parallel structure: users can either trade directly with USDT from their exchange account, or participate through a Web3 wallet using Polygon network USDC. Gate DEX has further integrated Polymarket on June 18, 2026, allowing users to connect directly via Gate Wallet to conduct on-chain self-custody trading.

The core value of this product set lies in: packaging Polymarket’s on-chain prediction capabilities into the familiar trading experience of CEX users. Prediction markets have turned from “geek toys” into “mainstream tools.”

Reshaping CEX Competitive Logic: From Assets to Events

Gate’s integration with Polymarket has the most far-reaching impact on the CEX landscape in that it redefines the competitive dimension of CEXs.

Traditional CEX competition centers on assets—who can list more trading pairs, who can provide deeper liquidity, and who can capture trading demand for emerging assets first. But the logic of prediction markets is completely different: it is not about “what assets to trade,” but about “what information to trade.”

When a user can simultaneously trade Bitcoin spot and a prediction on the “2026 World Cup champion” on Gate, the positioning of CEX is shifting from an “asset trading platform” to an “information trading platform.” This shift means that CEX competition is no longer confined to the breadth of an asset list; it expands to the breadth of event coverage, the precision of information pricing, and the barrier to user participation.

From the data, Gate’s layout is starting to show results. Gate has become a Top 3 distribution channel for Polymarket trading volume, validating the key value of CEX distribution capability for prediction market expansion. After the 2026 World Cup entered the round of 32 knockout stage, Gate’s prediction market data showed significant growth.

At the same time, Gate’s spot trading volume increased by 11.5% month over month in May 2026, reaching $43.8 billion, ranking first in growth among major global exchanges. Against the backdrop of global crypto market total trading volume declining 3.45% month over month to $4.41 trillion, Gate’s counter-trend growth indicates that its multi-asset strategy layout is producing structural advantages.

Threefold Impact on the CEX Landscape

From a more macro perspective, Gate’s integration with Polymarket can be summarized into three dimensions of impact on the CEX landscape.

First, a change in user acquisition logic. The event-driven nature of prediction markets naturally draws traffic. Political elections, sports events, macroeconomic events—these topics themselves receive broad public attention. When CEX can provide users with an entry point to participate in predictions on these events, the customer acquisition scenario expands from “people who want to trade cryptocurrencies” to “people who are interested in world events.” The logic of expanding the user base has fundamentally changed.

Second, a new dimension for product differentiation. In a context where spot and derivatives trading are becoming increasingly homogeneous, prediction markets offer CEX an entirely new dimension of differentiation. Whoever can provide richer event coverage, a smoother participation experience, and more precise information pricing can build a new moat in competition for existing users. As the first CEX to complete this integration, Gate has a first-mover advantage in the timing window.

Third, diversification of the revenue structure. Trading-fee income brought by prediction markets, stablecoin flow generated by event settlement, and financial services built around prediction markets may all become new growth points within a CEX’s revenue structure. As prediction markets move from “incremental exploration” to a “mainstream cycle,” the weight of this revenue source is expected to continue increasing.

Risks and Challenges

No shift in the landscape is one-dimensional. Gate’s integration with Polymarket also faces risk dimensions that require ongoing attention.

Regulatory risk is the most prominent. Prediction markets face differentiated regulatory attitudes worldwide. As of early 2026, Polymarket has listed about 33 restricted countries and regions. In May 2026, Spain ordered ISP blocking of Polymarket. In late June 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) initiated a new investigation into Polymarket. In Japan, the exchange Bitbank froze accounts related to Polymarket on June 15, 2026, citing Article 185 of Japan’s Penal Code to classify cryptocurrency event contract trading as gambling.

These regulatory developments mean that integrating prediction markets into CEXs must be built on a solid compliance foundation. Gate continues to advance its compliance layout across multiple jurisdictions. Its Malta entity, Gate Europe, has obtained European MiCA and PI licenses under the supervision of the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), providing an institutional basis for compliant operations of prediction market business.

In addition, the user structure of prediction markets is also worth noting. Data shows that 70% of addresses on Polymarket have realized losses, while less than 0.04% of wallets account for about 70% of total profits. This suggests that prediction markets have high-risk attributes, so CEXs promoting such products need to establish comprehensive user education and risk disclosure mechanisms.

Summary

Gate’s integration with Polymarket is a landmark event in the evolution of CEX from “asset trading” to “event trading.” It lowers the participation threshold of prediction markets, enabling more than 54 million users to take part in prediction trading for global trending events with a single click. It changes the competitive dimension of CEX—from competition over asset listings to competition over event coverage, from competition over liquidity to competition over information pricing. It also creates new possibilities for CEX user acquisition, product differentiation, and revenue structure.

Of course, this integration is still at an early stage. Regulatory evolution, the rollout of user education, and continuous optimization of product experience will all affect the final direction of this trend. But one thing is certain: the boundaries of CEX are being redefined, and Gate has already taken the first step in this direction.

FAQ

Q1: After Gate integrates with Polymarket, how can users participate in prediction trading?

Users can directly participate in prediction trading using USDT from their Gate spot account, without needing extra registration or configuring a Web3 wallet, and without paying Gas fees. A Polymarket entry has already been added within the Gate App, supporting both “prediction mode” and “trading mode.”

Q2: Is Gate the only CEX that integrates with Polymarket?

Gate is the world’s first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket.

Q3: How big is the trading volume of the prediction market?

According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket’s international platform set a historical peak in March 2026, with trading volume reaching $1.05 billion. The global prediction market’s monthly trading volume has exceeded $200 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the global prediction market’s trading volume reached about $75 billion.

Q4: How is prediction market trading different from ordinary cryptocurrency trading?

Prediction market trading focuses on the outcomes of future events—users buy “Yes” or “No” shares, and after event settlement, the correct side earns profits. Ordinary cryptocurrency trading focuses on buying and selling asset prices. The two differ significantly in pricing logic, settlement methods, and risk characteristics.

Q5: What are the risks of participating in prediction market trading?

Prediction markets have high-risk attributes. Data shows that 70% of the addresses on Polymarket have realized losses. Participants should fully understand the trading mechanics and risks of event contracts and make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.