In the world most people are familiar with, a higher success rate usually means greater ability; but in fields that follow a power law distribution—such as venture capital, entrepreneurship, and technological innovation—the opposite is true: a tiny number of successes create the vast majority of value, while the vast majority of attempts are destined to fail. Therefore, an excessive focus on hit rate often systematically eliminates the very opportunities that could bring huge returns. Truly world-changing projects often look like "bad ideas" at birth, because if an opportunity seems obviously good, its excess returns have usually already been competed away. So, in certain specific areas, a high failure rate does not necessarily mean poor judgment; instead, it may mean you are playing a power law game in the right place. What really needs to be optimized is not "avoiding failure," but whether you can capture that one success that changes everything.

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