June 30 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

On June 29, there were no major crypto positives or black swan events, and the market was more influenced by macro risk asset linkages:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke out strongly, putting pressure on risk assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin. The semiconductor ETF (SMH) broke its trendline, indicating that the AI/tech sector is also under pressure

The previous stronger-than-expected US employment data continues to affect rate cut expectations, coupled with geopolitical factors and end-of-quarter fund rebalancing, overall risk appetite is weak

Market sentiment is extremely low, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 12 (a cycle low, Extreme Fear zone). Historically, this is often a contrarian signal for local bottoms, but it needs confirmation from price and capital flows

🤯 Capital Flows:

Overall, capital flows in June were under extreme pressure, but June 29 showed marginal improvement:

Spot ETFs continued massive outflows: cumulative outflows in June have approached or exceeded $4 billion, setting a record for the worst single month. On June 26, there was a single-day outflow of $444.5 million (mainly from BlackRock IBIT).

June 29 data (latest from Farside): net inflow of approximately +$69.4 million (ARKB +$50 million, GBTC +$35.1 million, etc., with some funds having small outflows). This is a rare net inflow day recently, echoing the price reclaiming $60k.

Liquidation data: approximately $35-37 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with over 88% being long liquidations, indicating that leveraged longs are being continuously flushed out during the decline (typical weakness characteristic).

Core conclusion on capital flows: The large-scale ETF redemptions in June were the main cause of the price decline (institutional/investor rebalancing or profit-taking), but after the small net inflow on June 29 and the flushing of longs, short-term selling pressure has eased. In the long run, cumulative ETF inflows remain positive, and institutional underlying demand has not disappeared.

🤯 Technicals:

Over the past two days, I reminded everyone that there would be a small bounce at this level. Indeed, last night there was a green candle, but it did not continue.

Currently, the daily chart's MACD divergence has basically formed, but the upward momentum is still very weak. So within the day, we need to watch whether the 59000 level can hold. If it breaks down, we need to be wary of risks. In the short term, I personally believe it will still be dominated by consolidation. After the consolidation, it will still go up with one leg. So at this level, it's not about how skilled you are, but who has more patience. So in the short term, the consolidation range is between 59000 and 60800.