Those who shorted $BTC last night are most frustrated not because they were wrong on direction, but because they realized that this market simply moves according to the news button.

Fighting broke out after Friday's close, and suddenly peace talks resumed early Monday morning. The US and Iran agreed to suspend mutual strikes and will go to Doha, Qatar this week to negotiate the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices were first suppressed, safe-haven assets breathed a sigh of relief, and $BTC was pushed back above 60k from around 58,888, with risk assets like ETH and SOL also catching their breath.
But this is not purely good news.
The Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of energy. As long as the rules of navigation, blockade, and attacks are not clarified, oil prices can spike back at any time. What's more disgusting is the rhythm: one second it's said that negotiations are suspended and the conflict escalates, $BTC drops below 59.5k; the next second it's said that technical talks continue as usual, and before shorts can settle in, they get punished by the rebound.
So I don't believe this is an ordinary rebound. The real divergence is not whether to ceasefire or not, but who knew the script in advance. Retail investors wait for news, but the market has already started betting. Whether $BTC can hold above 60k depends on whether the Doha talks can suppress the 'fight while negotiating' situation. If the talks are unstable, this rally is just another harvesting material.
$BTC
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