The 1600 hurdle—once you cross it, it’s a whole new sky?

Now let’s talk about my second aunt.

ETH has been even worse than Bitcoin in this move. It slid from a high of 1,779 all the way down to the low at 1,510. It rebounded a little today and is currently trading in a range around 1,580-1,620. Up more than 3% over the past 24 hours, RSI6 has surged to 78—short-term it’s getting a bit overheated.

Overall, ETH is in a weak recovery phase after a big sell-off. Looking at the daily chart, the price is still lying below the downtrend line since mid-May, and the Super Trend indicator at 1,644 hasn’t been reclaimed. In plain terms—it hasn’t truly turned strong yet.

One thing worth mentioning: the spot Ethereum ETF has already seen net outflows for seven straight weeks. In the week ending June 26, another $273 million left the funds, and BlackRock’s ETHA alone accounted for $236 million. Institutions have been redeeming continuously; if ETH wants to rally, the difficulty is indeed quite high.

Key levels—I'll go straight to them:

· Support: The first line of defense is 1,580-1,550, with strong support at 1,510. 1,520-1,524 is the so-called “lifeline.” Once it breaks, downside room opens up, and 1,400 or even 1,000 isn’t out of the question. Liquidity below 1,550 is relatively thin—if it really drops, a stampede could happen very quickly.
· Resistance: The first pressure zone is 1,640-1,660, with strong resistance at 1,700. 1,600-1,620 is the short-term sell-pressure area, and the Super Trend indicator at 1,644 is the hurdle. Only a breakout with volume above 1,668 can reverse the short-term bearish structure.
· Derivatives data: Between 1,610-1,630, a large amount of leveraged positions are clustered. Once that range is broken, it could trigger short liquidations and accelerate the push toward 1,700-1,750.

Trading ideas as a reference:

If you want to go long: buy on a pullback into the 1,550-1,580 range, place your stop-loss below 1,510, and look for targets at 1,640-1,660.

If you want to go short: if it rallies into 1,640-1,660 and can’t break through, you can take a short-term short. Set your stop-loss above 1,700, and target 1,580-1,550.

Personally, I think ETH at this level is not great for either side. If you go long, everything from 1600-1750 is resistance. If you go short, it’s already dropped so much—what if the US-Iran side really negotiates something and a single piece of news blows it up?

Better to wait. Wait for the non-farm payroll data, wait for the “7/2” surprise to land. The monthly candle closes today, and where July goes will largely depend on whether the macro environment gives it a break. Tom Lee even said there’s a pile of macro headwinds right now, but he also said pessimistic sentiment may have already peaked. The darkness before dawn is often the darkest—but you still have to make sure you survive until morning.
#0成本拿2股SK海力士
$ETH ‌