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Fed Meeting Minutes: Elevated energy prices will continue to put upward pressure on headline inflation in the near term.
Participants generally anticipate that the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation will gradually diminish within this year.
However, some participants noted that tariff rates could increase further beyond current levels, leading to greater upward pressure on inflation.
A few participants emphasized that after several years of inflation above 2%, high inflation could have a larger impact on wage and price-setting decisions.
Almost all participants noted that the Middle East conflict could persist for a long time, or even if it ends, oil and other commodity prices could remain elevated for longer than expected.
In this scenario, participants expect that supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or pass-through of higher input costs to other prices will continue to push inflation higher.
The vast majority of participants noted that the time needed for inflation to return to the Committee's 2% target may be longer than they previously anticipated, with risks tilted to the upside.
(Source: Jin10)